[asa] Data doesn't support global warming

From: Dave Wallace <wmdavid.wallace@gmail.com>
Date: Fri Dec 18 2009 - 09:37:28 EST
Rich

Yesterday I went to the GWS (Global Warming Science) site and in order to verify that I was using the facilities correctly I reproduced your results more or less since I did not use exactly the same stations you got.  

I also graphed Arhangel'sk on GWS and the resulting plot was as close to your as I could tell by doing a quick once over.  Recent warming but certainly not beyond historical swings.
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/climgraph.aspx?pltparms=GHCNT100XJanDecI188020080900110AS63822550000x

Next I tried to reproduce what Glenn plotted only using GWS plot capabilities and got a server error with a stack walkback trace...  Have gotten this a number of times and it does raise concerns about the programming on the site.

All the following discussion assumes lat/long set as Glenn did, only included years with 12 months of data and plots the mean of the unadjusted data.

Not knowing how many stations would crash the plotting logic I tried the first thirty that came up in the list of stations. 

Actual Temperature Averages
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/climgraph.aspx?pltparms=GHCNT100AJanDecA188020081203010AS22220069000x22220274000x22220292000x22220353000x22220674000x22220744000x22220891000x22223022001x22223074000x22223146000x22223205000x22223219000x22223330000x22223405000x22223418000x22223472000x22223552000x22223631000x22223711000x22223724000x22223804000x22223849000x22223884000x22223891000x22223914000x22223921000x22223933000x22223955000x22224105000x22224125000x

Anomoly Temperature Averages
  http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/climgraph.aspx?pltparms=GHCNT100XJanDecA188020081203010AS22220069000x22220274000x22220292000x22220353000x22220674000x22220744000x22220891000x22223022001x22223074000x22223146000x22223205000x22223219000x22223330000x22223405000x22223418000x22223472000x22223552000x22223631000x22223711000x22223724000x22223804000x22223849000x22223884000x22223891000x22223914000x22223921000x22223933000x22223955000x22224105000x22224125000x

I suggest getting both of these plots up in two browser instances and comparing the plots.  The anomaly plot shows considerable recent warming  compared to the 1890 to 1960 time period.  The actual temperature plot does NOT show that the most recent temperature is greater than historical figures from say 1890 to 1960.  Something is wrong!

My understanding is that anomaly plots show the difference between the yearly average and the average of the averages over the years plotted. 

IMHO the plotting software is buggy.

Never the less I persevered trying to reproduce Glenn's plots.

Actual Temperature Averages over the first 75 stations

http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/climgraph.aspx?pltparms=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 001x61402958000x61402963000x61402971001x61402972000x

Anomaly Temperature Averages over the first 75 stations 

http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/climgraph.aspx?pltparms=GHCNT100XJanDecA188020081207510AS22220069000x22220274000x22220292000x22220353000x22220674000x22220744000x22220891000x22223022001x22223074000x22223146000x22223205000x22223219000x22223330000x22223405000x22223418000x22223472000x22223552000x22223631000x22223711000x22223724000x22223804000x22223849000x22223884000x22223891000x22223914000x22223921000x22223933000x22223955000x22224105000x22224125000x22224143000x22224329000x22224343000x22224507000x22224641000x22224738000x22224817000x22224908000x22224944000x22224951000x22228028001x22228044001x22228064000x22228138000x22228225000x22228240000x22228275000x22229231000x22229263000x22229282000x22230054000x22230253000x22231004000x61326038000x61326038001x61326231000x61326231001x61326233001x61402807000x61402836000x61402844001x61402845000x61402869000x61402874001x61402875000x61402897000x61402912000x61402912001x61402929000x61402935000x61402944 001x61402958000x61402963000x61402971001x61402972000x

Note that the same kind of problem exists as I showed above with the anomaly plot. 

However, if one only looks at the actual temperature data, only from 1880 on, it does not look that much different than Glens plots at least eyeballing it where a smoothed curve would go.   Averages for near in years are NOT out of line with historical maximum averages so warming is not apparent either looking at smoothed data or none smoothed data. 

Actual Temperature Averages over the last 72 stations

http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/climgraph.aspx?pltparms=GHCNT100AJanDecA188020081207210AS61402974000x62626238001x63401005001x63401008000x63401010001x63401025000x63401028000x63401049000x63401052001x63401055001x63401065000x63401068001x63401074001x63401092000x63401098000x63401112001x63401152000x63401212000x63401238000x63401238001x63401241000x63401258001x63401288000x63401306000x63401317000x63401351001x63401357001x63401384000x63401403000x63401415000x63401450001x63401465000x63401482000x63401489001x63822113000x63822165000x63822217000x63822422000x63822522000x63822550000x63822583000x63822602000x63822641000x63822802000x63822820000x63822837000x63822854000x63822887000x63826063000x63826063001x63826179000x63826258000x63826285001x63826289000x63826298000x63827037000x63827051000x63827196000x64502080000x64502128001x64502142000x64502183001x64502196000x64502226000x64502361001x64502418000x64502439001x64502456001x64502458000x64502464000x64502576001x80099910001x

Anomaly Temperature Averages over the last 72 stations

http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/climgraph.aspx?pltparms=GHCNT100XJanDecA188020081207210AS61402974000x62626238001x63401005001x63401008000x63401010001x63401025000x63401028000x63401049000x63401052001x63401055001x63401065000x63401068001x63401074001x63401092000x63401098000x63401112001x63401152000x63401212000x63401238000x63401238001x63401241000x63401258001x63401288000x63401306000x63401317000x63401351001x63401357001x63401384000x63401403000x63401415000x63401450001x63401465000x63401482000x63401489001x63822113000x63822165000x63822217000x63822422000x63822522000x63822550000x63822583000x63822602000x63822641000x63822802000x63822820000x63822837000x63822854000x63822887000x63826063000x63826063001x63826179000x63826258000x63826285001x63826289000x63826298000x63827037000x63827051000x63827196000x64502080000x64502128001x64502142000x64502183001x64502196000x64502226000x64502361001x64502418000x64502439001x64502456001x64502458000x64502464000x64502576001x80099910001x

The actual temperature plot does show warming of about one degree between the oldest and latest years on the smoothed data plot but not if one looks at the none smoothed data plot.

The anomaly plot as usual is not useful as it shows a 2 degree difference between the oldest and latest years on the smoothed line.

How would the plot have looked on GWS if I could have plotted all the stations on one graph?? Probably it would show a bit of warming but less than one degree on the smoothed plot and none on the actual plot compared to historical highs.

I would like to understand  the small scale differences between Glenn's plot and the ones from GWS but I do not think they make any material difference. 

Dave W

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