Re: [asa] Data doesn't support global warming

From: Rich Blinne <rich.blinne@gmail.com>
Date: Fri Dec 18 2009 - 00:34:05 EST

On Thu, Dec 17, 2009 at 3:09 PM, Glenn Morton <glennmorton@entouch.net> wrote:
I did your work for you Rich. Here are the pictures (gosh I thought you said you engaged with the data)
 
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Lxqre8hMG3M/Syqo8Jkr0aI/AAAAAAAAA6w/pPFpRDrFiwY/s1600-h/weatherSiberiaARcticCircleTempAnomaly.jpg
 
Very, very interesting. Why did you average an entire continent using no grid? That's pretty useless. Still you did do an analysis of the arctic stations so I will start with that since the point is whether there is polar amplification and thus high latitude stations are key. You also did anomaly analysis. So, thanks. But why would you start in 1897 and end in 1991? That's what I find frustrating dealing with skeptics you seem to love to play with the endpoints which seem all too "convenient". Here's the same kind of analysis with wider endpoints using the same web site Eschenbach used for part of his Darwin Airport analysis. Note how your choice of endpoints (particularly 1991!) hides the warming trend.
  
http://tinyurl.com/y96xzoo

 
The test for polar amplification is whether the trend is faster for high latitudes over the global rate of warming. Compare with warming globally:

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif
 
From 1980 to 2008 in the Arctic temperatures went up 2.5 degrees C while global temperatures went up around 0.5 degrees C. That's a 5x polar amplification. Remember it was my contention that there was polar amplification that started this thread. Lower latitude Siberian temps, air conditioners in the U.S., or CMU e-mails have as little to do with that as the price of milk in Chicago. If my point is true then we have some confirmation of attributing the warming to anthropogenic causes since other root causes of warming do not have polar amplification.
 
Rich Blinne
Member ASA
 

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Received on Fri Dec 18 00:34:44 2009

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