Re: [asa] Data doesn't support global warming

From: Rich Blinne <rich.blinne@gmail.com>
Date: Thu Dec 17 2009 - 10:46:57 EST

On Thu, Dec 17, 2009 at 7:28 AM, Dave Wallace <wmdavid.wallace@gmail.com>wrote:

>
>
> Good point although I would like to see what the last quarter does not just
> the weather for a month. I think you have criticized me for this in the
> past.
>
>
That's true but I was noting not merely unusual highs but record-breaking
ones. Part of the record highs is not attributable to global warming,
though. A key part of the record-breaking warmth in Canada was the
temperature imbalance between Canada and central Asia which was unusually
cool for November. Globally 2009 was not a record breaking year for two
reasons. It started as a La Nina but has now switched over to El Nino and we
just started the next Sunspot cycle. As for your big picture question,
here's the regional breakdown for the year:

"Warmer-than-average temperatures occurred during the year (January-October)
for most of the world's surface. The warmest above-average temperatures
occurred throughout high latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere
including much of Europe and Asia [RDB Note: polar amplification clearly
continues], also across Mexico, Africa, and Australia. Cooler-than-average
conditions occurred across the southern oceans, parts of the northeastern
Pacific Ocean, and a region spanning southern Canada and the north central
contiguous United States."

When the end-of-the-year's data comes in 2009 will be somewhere
between fourth and sixth all time high temperature in the last 150 years.
Here's a more detailed ENSO analysis for the year:

"El Niņo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) began 2009 in a cold (La Niņa) phase,
but by April some anomalous warming had taken place in the sea surface
temperature (SST) of all Niņo regions across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Such conditions are indicative of a transition from cold phase ENSO (La
Niņa) to ENSO-neutral conditions. However, by June 2009, warm phase (El
Niņo) conditions had entrenched across the equatorial Pacific basin, and
persisted through the end of the year. In conjunction with the developing
ENSO warm phase, the worldwide ocean temperatures increased relative to the
long-term average during late spring. The presence of an El Niņo in the
tropical Pacific Ocean contributed to the warmest global ocean temperatures
for the June-August season. Above average SST remained present in all Niņo
regions at the end of November, and Oceanic Niņo Index values exceeded the
El Niņo threshold for the past five months, ensuring that 2009 is recorded
as an El Niņo year. According to the latest information from NOAA's Climate
Prediction Center, El Niņo is expected to strengthen and last through the
Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010."

Because of the factors noted above 2010 will continue being warmer but still
not record breaking. If I was going to bet I would put either 2011 or 2012
as the next all-time-high year when Cycle 24 begins in earnest.

 http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif

Rich Blinne
Member ASA

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Received on Thu Dec 17 10:47:04 2009

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