Re: [asa] Data doesn't support global warming

From: Rich Blinne <rich.blinne@gmail.com>
Date: Tue Dec 15 2009 - 00:37:44 EST

On Dec 14, 2009, at 8:00 PM, Glenn Morton wrote:

>
>
>
> >>>Looks like significant warming but maybe you just distrust surface records altogether does the troposphere show the predicted 0.12-0.15 degree warming?
>
> UAH Low Troposphere trend for October: 0.14 degrees C per decade warming
> RSS Low Troposphere trend for October: 0.16 degrees C per decade warming
>
> UAH Mid Troposphere trend for October: 0.14 degrees C per decade warming
> RSS Mid Troposphere trend for October: 0.18 degrees C per decade warming
> RATPAC Mid Troposphere trend for January-October: 0.15 degress C per decade
>
> To see how RATPAC and the surface trends line up see this annual comparison from last year. Note: I'll update this post when all the 2009 data comes out in the next few days. It's only the graphics that aren't available the trends above are from 2009.
>
> http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/ts-sfc-radiosonde-jan-dec-2008-pg.gif
>
> Finally what about the stratosphere? It's on a 0.2 degree C per decade cooling trend! Everything lines up for AGW and is why the AGU survey of climatologists have 97% believe AGW. <<<
>
> Let's look at that satellite data. The devil is always in the details. Look athttp://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Lxqre8hMG3M/SybyLf1mxKI/AAAAAAAAA5o/20HOiFc6Nv8/s1600-h/weatherSatelliteStepChangetrends.jpg
>
> This picture shows a step function in the satellite temperature and if you calculate the trend both before and after that step function jump, the upward trends are far far below your claim. Please explain the step change and why the trend is so low before and after it.

The trend I am referring to is from 1960:

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/ts-sfc-radiosonde-jan-dec-2008-pg.gif

Generally speaking you should stay far far away from either side of 1998. The trends for the satellites are for 31 years and not since 1998. Here's from the table for October 2009:

October Anomaly Rank
(out of 31 years) Warmest Year on Record Trend
UAH low-trop +0.28C/+0.50F 6th warmest 2005 (+0.39C/+0.70F) +0.14C/decade
RSS low-trop +0.28C/+0.51F 7th warmest 2003 (+0.46C/+0.84F) +0.16C/decade

UW-UAH mid-trop +0.26C/+0.47F 6th warmest 1998 (+0.51C/+0.93F) +0.14C/decade
UW-RSS mid-trop +0.29C/+0.53F 7th warmest 1998 (+0.56C/+1.02F) +0.18C/decade

RATPAC* +0.47C/+0.84F 7th warmest 1998 (+0.79C/+1.43F) +0.15C/decade

Here's what the mid-troposphere trend looks like in graphical form:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/get-file.php?report=global&file=ratpac&byear=2009&bmonth=1&year=2009&month=10&ext=gif

Finally the average for this decade is 0.18 degrees C warmer than the previous decade. Some cooling.

Rich Blinne
Member ASA

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Received on Tue Dec 15 00:38:11 2009

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