Re: Fwd: a modest proposal [was: Re: [asa] Phil Jones Stepping Down..]

From: Randy Isaac <>
Date: Sat Dec 12 2009 - 20:02:07 EST

Bill wrote:
To the above I could reiterate the economist's caveat: Correlation oes not necessarily imply causation. In any case my understanding is that the CO2 concentration lags the temperature, so why don't we say that increasing temperature has resulted in release of CO2 from the oceans?

Indeed, you are quite right. Correlation does not imply causation. Correlation is not needed for the argument in this case. The point is that at equilibrium, the two parameters are closely correlated, by whatever mechanism that might occur. As for CO2 lagging or leading temperature, both are observed. That is consistent with our understanding that higher temperature can lead to an increase in CO2 and an increase in CO2 can lead to an increase in T. They are linked in positive feedback with each other. So whatever mechanism drives one, the other follows.
  It would be better to reread Glenn's blog than to rely on my explanation. However, in explanation Glenn postulated that October is a month when air conditioners are shut down, so the surface stations located near air conditioner exhausts are registering the true temperature. There are a lot of surface stations located near air conditioner exhausts, as you will find from looking at

  I'm not at all questioning the validity of the individual datapoints. They may or may not be valid and by all rights should be authenticated. I'm taking that for granted. But picking one month out of 12, no matter how valid the premise, is not as good as taking all 12.

  The same criticism can be leveled at the AGW advocates. When they are advocating the expenditure of trillions of dollars to alleviate a condition that does not show up uniformly, and when it is suspected by some that they have cooked their data, they should be willing to respond to criticisms.

  I'm puzzled. The result has to show up uniformly before taking action? By its nature, climate change will never be uniform.


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Received on Sat Dec 12 20:02:29 2009

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