Re: a modest proposal [was: Re: [asa] Phil Jones Stepping Down..]

From: William Hamilton <willeugenehamilton@gmail.com>
Date: Sat Dec 12 2009 - 17:22:40 EST

Thanks for the data, Rich. However, from Rany's remark I was really
expecting to find a dynamic analysis that hows the the phasing of the
irradience variations just isn't right to sustain the sort of temperature
increase postulated by Tobias and Weiss or Scafetta. So this doesn't
establish anything. Yes, I see that the irradience stays right around 1367
w/m^2, but stochastic resonance can be triggered by very small variations.

On Fri, Dec 11, 2009 at 3:07 PM, Rich Blinne <rich.blinne@gmail.com> wrote:

>
> http://mirador.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/mirador/presentNavigation.pl?tree=project&project=SORCE&CGISESSID=1b3e0d5e8eca07cec96fe19f5165fd23
>
>
> ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SOLAR_IRRADIANCE/composite_d25_07_0310a.dat
>
> http://www.acrim.com/
>
> http://www.acrim.com/RESULTS/Earth%20Observatory/earth_obs_fig2.pdf
>
> ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SOLAR_IRRADIANCE/ACRIM3/
>
> ftp://ftp.ngdc.noaa.gov/STP/SOLAR_DATA/SOLAR_IRRADIANCE/COMPOSITE.v2.GIF
>
>
> On Fri, Dec 11, 2009 at 1:45 PM, William Hamilton <
> willeugenehamilton@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Yes, I'd like to see the data.
>>
>>
>> On Fri, Dec 11, 2009 at 11:48 AM, Randy Isaac <randyisaac@comcast.net>wrote:
>>
>>> Yes, Bill, this is indeed an important possibility that must be
>>> carefully considered. The two main remaining problems with it are: 1. such
>>> an amplification effect for solar activity has been hypothesized but
>>> evidence that it actually occurs has not yet been obtained, and 2. the
>>> observed climate effects do not correlate with the observed fluctuations in
>>> solar activity which should show up if such a large variation is actually
>>> occurring. I can show you the data if you wish.
>>>
>>> Randy
>>>
>>> *From:* William Hamilton <willeugenehamilton@gmail.com>
>>> *Sent:* Wednesday, December 09, 2009 11:14 PM
>>> *To:* Rich Blinne <rich.blinne@gmail.com>
>>> *Cc:* ASA <asa@calvin.edu> ; Randy Isaac <randyisaac@comcast.net>
>>> *Subject:* Re: a modest proposal [was: Re: [asa] Phil Jones Stepping
>>> Down..]
>>>
>>> One reference that points out how a small variation in excitation can
>>> lead to a large variation in output in a nonlinear system is
>>> Resonant Interactions between Solar Activity and Climate S. M. Tobias
>>> and N. O. Weiss *Journal of Climate*
>>> Volume 13, Issue 21 (November 2000) pp. 37453759
>>> DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3745:RIBSAA>2.0.CO <http://2.0.co/>;2
>>> Go to the American Meteorological Society web site and search Journal of
>>> Climate and you'll find a downloadable pdf. I'm not claiming that Tobias and
>>> Weiss have constructed an accurate model of sun/earth dynamics. That's not
>>> what they're trying to do. Their model simply demonstrates that in a
>>> nonlinear system small perturbations can lead to large changes in output
>>> behavior.
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> William E (Bill) Hamilton Jr., Ph.D.
>> Member American Scientific Affiliation
>> Austin, TX
>> 248 821 8156
>>
>>
>

-- 
William E (Bill) Hamilton Jr., Ph.D.
Member American Scientific Affiliation
Austin, TX
248 821 8156
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Received on Sat Dec 12 17:23:27 2009

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