Re: Fwd: a modest proposal [was: Re: [asa] Phil Jones Stepping Down..]

From: William Hamilton <willeugenehamilton@gmail.com>
Date: Fri Dec 11 2009 - 16:02:09 EST

On Fri, Dec 11, 2009 at 12:16 PM, Randy Isaac <randyisaac@comcast.net>wrote:

> I would be delighted if Glenn joined the discussion on this list. I have
> high regard for him and like his focus on the data. As you point out, I
> referred to the discussion on this list and not to Glenn. I had two aspects
> in mind regarding failure to deal with the data. One was the predominance of
> subjective statements of character assassination or denigration, or even
> simply undocumented cynicism of data, rather than data-based arguments. The
> other was that many on this list expressed doubts about the validity of the
> surface temperatures and the validity of models. But when we turned to data
> entirely separate from those areas, namely, historical correlation of CO2
> and temperature, there was no response to that data, just a restatement of
> "I don't believe it" or words to that effect.
>

To the above I could reiterate the economist's caveat: Correlation oes not
necessarily imply causation. In any case my understanding is that the CO2
concentration lags the temperature, so why don't we say that increasing
temperature has resulted in release of CO2 from the oceans?

>
> As for the data in the link you provide here, it is certainly impressive to
> see the temperature trends of each state for the last 100 some years in
> October. What are we to infer from the fact that less than a handful show
> warming? Since warming cannot be detected in these states for October, there
> is no global trend? That looking at less than 2% of the global surface area
> for 8.5% of the time and failing to see a trend invalidates the trend seen
> by considering 100% of the earth's surface for 100% of the time? I think I'm
> missing something. Perhaps you can enlighten me.
>

It would be better to reread Glenn's blog than to rely on my explanation.
However, in explanation Glenn postulated that October is a month when air
conditioners are shut down, so the surface stations located near air
conditioner exhausts are registering the true temperature. There are a lot
of surface stations located near air conditioner exhausts, as you will find
from looking at www.surfacestations.org.

>
> I think one of the common problems with arguments from both skeptics and
> advocates of global warming is using a limited subset of space and/or time
> of the global data. Too many advocates look at one region and argue for
> warming. Maybe it's Kilimanjaro, maybe it's a glacier, or the Arctic, or
> Greenland, or wherever. But that's not a good argument for warming and it
> backfires. One can always find other regions where warming is not occurring.
> It's not an easy task to blend data from the entire earth's surface, both
> ocean and land, to get an accurate indication of thermal trends. Three
> independent groups have been meticulously doing this for many years and the
> results are consistent in showing a trend. Why would these results be
> refuted by taking a small contiguous geographical region for a subset of the
> time?
>

The same criticism can be leveled at the AGW advocates. When they are
advocating the expenditure of trillions of dollars to alleviate a condition
that does not show up uniformly, and when it is suspected by some that they
have cooked their data, they should be willing to respond to criticisms.

>
> Randy
>
>
> *From:* William Hamilton <willeugenehamilton@gmail.com>
> *Sent:* Tuesday, December 08, 2009 8:27 AM
> *To:* ASA <asa@calvin.edu>
> *Cc:* Glenn Morton <glennmorton@entouch.net>
> *Subject:* Fwd: a modest proposal [was: Re: [asa] Phil Jones Stepping
> Down..]
>
> The following is an exchange I had with Glenn after Randy said that AGW
> deniers on the list don't engage with the data. I should point out that
> Glenn uses lots of charts and graphs on his blog, (
> http://themigrantmind.blogspot.com) which he couldn't use were he posting
> on this list.
>
>

-- 
William E (Bill) Hamilton Jr., Ph.D.
Member American Scientific Affiliation
Austin, TX
248 821 8156
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Received on Fri Dec 11 16:03:13 2009

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