Re: a modest proposal [was: Re: [asa] Phil Jones Stepping Down..]

From: Randy Isaac <randyisaac@comcast.net>
Date: Fri Dec 11 2009 - 12:48:20 EST

Yes, Bill, this is indeed an important possibility that must be carefully considered. The two main remaining problems with it are: 1. such an amplification effect for solar activity has been hypothesized but evidence that it actually occurs has not yet been obtained, and 2. the observed climate effects do not correlate with the observed fluctuations in solar activity which should show up if such a large variation is actually occurring. I can show you the data if you wish.

Randy

From: William Hamilton
Sent: Wednesday, December 09, 2009 11:14 PM
To: Rich Blinne
Cc: ASA ; Randy Isaac
Subject: Re: a modest proposal [was: Re: [asa] Phil Jones Stepping Down..]

One reference that points out how a small variation in excitation can lead to a large variation in output in a nonlinear system is
      Resonant Interactions between Solar Activity and Climate
      S. M. Tobias and N. O. Weiss
      Journal of Climate
      Volume 13, Issue 21 (November 2000) pp. 37453759
      DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3745:RIBSAA>2.0.CO;2

Go to the American Meteorological Society web site and search Journal of Climate and you'll find a downloadable pdf. I'm not claiming that Tobias and Weiss have constructed an accurate model of sun/earth dynamics. That's not what they're trying to do. Their model simply demonstrates that in a nonlinear system small perturbations can lead to large changes in output behavior.

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Received on Fri Dec 11 12:48:39 2009

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