Re: [asa] Fw: Temperature Records

From: Iain Strachan <igd.strachan@gmail.com>
Date: Thu Dec 10 2009 - 08:36:23 EST

I have begun to look into this, and I have to say I can't reproduce the
figures given in the "smoking gun" article. I believe I have downloaded the
data from the same source:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data/

<http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data/>as given in the article
(just before figure 5).

There are two different streams I downloaded:

"Raw GHCN data + USHCN corrections" (5 stations)

This seems to correspond to the data in the chart in Figure 5. I don't know
the meaning of USHCN corrections, but Eschenbach says it is the rawest data
he has.

The second option in the dropdown is

"After homogeneity adjustment"

which is what all the fuss was about.

First off: I didn't find adjustments for all the stations - there was a
single combined stream post 1963.

I have imported all this data into Matlab, and plotted the result, which I
have uploaded to PicasaWeb; you should be able to see it at:

http://picasaweb.google.com/IGD.Strachan/Darwin#

The first picture in the album is my plot from Matlab. I plotted the long
series from 1880 onwards in blue (station 1 (or zero?)) and the remaining
four stations in different shades of grey. They are virtually the same as
the baseline (except that they extend on to 2009). Over this, I have
plotted the "homogeneity adjusted" sequence in red, as downloaded from the
GISS website.

I think you should be able to see that the adjustments for homogeneity from
this dataset are minor in the extreme - to the extent that the plot obscures
the underlying plot of the raw data (ok so I cheated a little by plotting
the adjusted data in a thicker line).

However, on the basis of this, there is NO evidence of creative adjustments
for homogeneity.

I also went to the AIS website
http://www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/climate.aspx

which Eschenbach seems to have used to display his graphs. I found I was
unable to produce some of the features on those graphs (the thick black line
used to show the adjustements supposedly added in). There didn't seem to be
a button on the applet to allow me to do this.

Moreover, I found two websites reporting on Eschenbach's article. The two
other pictures in my Picasaweb album show what is given as figure 8 in both
articles (though the image filename of one of them is figure 9 - but they
appear as fig 8 in both).

The two are subtly and disturbingly different; one has the adjusted trend
data at an offset of 2 degrees from the other, which shows the adjustment
line coinciding with the trend data (very nice illustration of supposed
fiddling there!)

As I say I have been unable to reproduce this data from the GISS website,
where the adjustments don't seem to exhibit a trend that was not present in
the unadjusted.

I went into this with an open mind - if the claims of the article are true
then there is something fishy going on. So I looked at the data, and I
found no evidence of the "creative adjustment" in the article. I was
prepared to be persuaded either way.

Someone tell me I've done something wrong and where to find the data to
reproduce Eschenbach's graphs. Until that happens, it looks like
misinformation to me. not the first piece either; like the myth that
walking to work produces more CO2 than driving.
<http://picasaweb.google.com/IGD.Strachan/Darwin#>

On Wed, Dec 9, 2009 at 3:51 AM, Don Winterstein <dfwinterstein@msn.com>wrote:

> Randy suggested we skeptics engage with the data. A friend (PhD
> geologist) sent me the following message, which illustrates in great detail
> how another skeptic has engaged with the data. One of his principal
> conclusions: "*People who say that 'Climategate was only about scientists
> behaving badly, but the data is OK' are wrong.* At least one part of the
> data is bad, too." This is the kind of thing I suspected was going on all
> along (although things are apparently much worse than I suspected) and is
> the reason I proposed having all the data reinterpreted by a different set
> of scientists with different biases.
>
> Don
>
>
> Hi,
>
> You may find the info below of interest in assessing the validity of the
> temperature data used to document the history and extent of global warming.
> This is taken from some web postings by friends of mine.
>
> "Here's an "interesting" exposition of the methods used to cook the data re
> Global Warming. It's enough to make your blood boil."
>
>
> http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/08/the-smoking-gun-at-darwin-zero/#more-13818
>
>
> "The "homogenized" data from HADCRU, GCN, and GISS cannot be trusted.
> Period. The Emails, bad as they are, are a distraction. The Devil is in the
> data itself. They need to throw it all out, and start over, using only the
> sparse amount of reliable raw climate data that exists." Note: GISS and
> Michael Mann have been caught cooking other data long before Climategate.
>
> "This analysis is for a single station. If you consider the likely error
> range for this one station, then consider the likelihood of similar errors
> at the thousands of stations used for determining the Earth's "temperature,"
> and what the combined effect of these errors are on the analysis, the only
> conclusion one can draw is that this data is totally useless for finding any
> meaningful result. Any actual change is simply buried in the noise."
>

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Received on Thu Dec 10 08:36:49 2009

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