Re: a modest proposal [was: Re: [asa] Phil Jones Stepping Down..]

From: Rich Blinne <rich.blinne@gmail.com>
Date: Tue Dec 08 2009 - 12:11:31 EST

You don't have to take either Randy or my word for it since apparently Glenn
has made a case to his satisfaction on his web site. Go to his web site and
ask the following questions and decide for yourself.

1. Are graphs done in absolute temperatures or in anomalies? If you want to
hide a trend you do it in absolute temperatures and make sure that the scale
is sufficiently coarse. My second-grade daughter found this one out on the
PBS show Cyber Chase.

2. Are the trends global or local?

3. Are things correctly labelled, such as labeling say the Northern
Hemisphere as anything north of 60 degrees south latitude?

4. Is the peer-reviewed literature cited? Are known problems referenced such
as problems with using tree ring proxies mentioned? Are known corrections to
the data in the literature used and referenced? Was the NAS 2006 review of
paleoclimate literature that affirmed the "hockey stick" referenced?

5. Is the length of time for trends greater than know cyclical forcings such
as the 11 year sunspot cycle?

6. Is the data anecdotal rather than systemic?

7. If anecdotal problems exist was a systemic approach taken? Were global
anomalies recalculated with the problematic stations removed or corrected?
Was the literature referenced where a systemic approach was done? Were the
correction mention in said papers applied? Were alternative corrections
proposed?

8. Was proxy data preferred over measured data?

9. Do the graphs have error bars in them?

10. When alternatives to AGW are proposed was a physical mechanism included?
Was the physical mechanism plugged into a model? Did the model explain the
temperature record better than the current ones?

11. Were problems acknowledged such as in order for solar irradiance to
explain the current warming there needs to be at least a 2% increase while
the measured variation is a 0.1% cyclical 11-year one?

This is what Randy means by interacting with the data. I leave the answering
of these question as an excercise for the reader. Everyone can make up their
own mind.

Rich Blinne
Member ASA

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Received on Tue Dec 8 12:11:41 2009

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