Re: a modest proposal [was: Re: [asa] Phil Jones Stepping Down..]

From: Randy Isaac <>
Date: Wed Dec 02 2009 - 19:38:03 EST

Wow. That's an impressive collection, Rich. Many thanks.

P.S. Hmmm. Maybe we can make a rule that anyone on this list who wants to label anthropogenic global warming a "farce" would first have to sign an affirmation that they have read and discussed with the relevant scientists each one of these links.

From: Rich Blinne
Sent: Wednesday, December 02, 2009 6:10 PM
To: Don Winterstein
Cc: asa
Subject: Re: a modest proposal [was: Re: [asa] Phil Jones Stepping Down..]

Go find the scientists, here's the data:

Climate data (raw)
  a.. GHCN v.2 (Global Historical Climate Network: weather station records from around the world, temperature and precipitation)
  b.. USHCN US. Historical Climate Network (v.1 and v.2)
  c.. Antarctic weather stations
  d.. European weather stations (ECA)
  e.. Satellite feeds (AMSU, SORCE (Solar irradiance), NASA A-train)
  f.. Tide Gauges (Proudman Oceanographic Lab)
  g.. World Glacier Monitoring Service
  h.. Argo float data
  i.. International Comprehensive Ocean/Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) (Oceanic in situ observations)
  j.. AERONET Aerosol information
Climate data (processed)
  a.. Surface temperature anomalies (GISTEMP, HadCRU, NOAA NCDC, JMA)
  b.. Satellite temperatures (MSU) (UAH, RSS)
  c.. Sea surface temperatures (Reynolds et al, OI)
  d.. Stratospheric temperature
  e.. Sea ice (Cryosphere Today, NSIDC, JAXA, Bremen, Arctic-Roos, DMI)
  f.. Radiosondes (RAOBCORE, HadAT, U. Wyoming, RATPAC, IUK, Sterin (CDIAC), Angell (CDIAC) )
  g.. Cloud and radiation products (ISCCP, CERES-ERBE)
  h.. Sea level (U. Colorado)
  i.. Aerosols (AEROCOM, GACP)
  j.. Greenhouse Gases (AGGI at NOAA, CO2 Mauna Loa, World Data Center for Greenhouse Gases)
  k.. AHVRR data as used in Steig et al (2009)
  l.. Snow Cover (Rutgers)
  m.. GLIMS glacier database
  n.. Ocean Heat Content (NODC)
  o.. GCOS Essential Climate Variables Index
  a.. NOAA Paleoclimate
  b.. Pangaea
  c.. GRIP/NGRIP Ice cores (Denmark)
  d.. GISP2 (note that the age model has been updated)
  e.. National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC)
Paleo Reconstructions (including code)
  a.. Reconstructions index and data (NOAA)
  b.. Mann et al (2008) (also here, Mann et al (2009))
  c.. Kaufmann et al (2009)
  d.. Wahl and Ammann (2006)
  e.. Mann et al (1998/1999)
Large-scale model (Reanalysis) output
These are weather models which have the real world observations assimilated into the solution to provide a ‘best guess’ of the evolution of weather over time (although pre-satellite era estimates (before 1979) are less accurate).

  a.. ERA40 (1957-2001, from ECMWF)
  b.. ERA-Interim (1989 – present, ECMWF’s latest project)
  c.. NCEP (1948-present, NOAA), NCEP-2
  e.. JRA-25 (1979-2004, Japanese Met. Agency)
  f.. North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR)
Large-scale model (GCM) output
These is output from the large scale global models used to assess climate change in the past, and make projections for the future. Some of this output is also available via the Data Visualisation tools linked below.

  a.. CMIP3 output (~20 models, as used by IPCC AR4) at PCMDI
  b.. GISS ModelE output (includes AR4 output as well as more specific experiments)
  c.. GFDL Model output
Model codes (GCMs)
Downloadable codes for some of the GCMs.

  a.. GISS ModelE (AR4 version, current snapshot)
  b.. NCAR CCSM(Version 3.0, CCM3 (older vintage))
  c.. EdGCM Windows based version of an older GISS model.
  d.. Uni. Hamburg (SAM, PUMA and PLASIM)
  e.. NEMO Ocean Model
  f.. GFDL Models
  g.. MIT GCM
Model codes (other)
This category include links to analysis tools, simpler models or models focussed on more specific issues.

  a.. Rahmstorf (2007) Sea Level Rise Code
  b.. ModTran (atmospheric radiation calculations and visualisations)
  c.. Various climate-related online models (David Archer)
  d.. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) (FUND, FAIR, DICE, RICE)
  e.. CliMT a Python-based software component toolkit
  f.. Pyclimate Python tools for climate analysis
  g.. CDAT Tools for analysing climate data in netcdf format (PCMDI)
  h.. RegEM (Tapio Schneider)
  i.. Time series analysis (MTM-SVD, SSA-MTM toolkit, Mann and Lees (1996))
Data Visualisation and Analysis
These sites include some of the above data (as well as other sources) in an easier to handle form.

  a.. ClimateExplorer (KNMI)
  b.. Dapper (PMEL, NOAA)
  c.. Ingrid (IRI/LDEO Climate data library)
  d.. Giovanni (GSFC)
  e.. Wood for Trees: Interactive graphics (temperatures)
  f.. IPCC Data Visualisations
  g.. Regional IPCC model output
Master Repositories of Climate Data
Much bigger indexes of data sources:

  a.. Global Change Master Directory (GSFC)
  b.. PAGES data portal
  c.. NCDC (National Climate Data Center)
  d.. IPCC Data
  e.. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Lab: Atmospheric trace gas concentrations, historical carbon emissions, and more
  f.. CRU Data holdings
  g.. Hadley Centre Observational holdings

On Wed, Dec 2, 2009 at 3:10 PM, Don Winterstein <> wrote:

  "What would turn me from skeptic to believer?" I asked myself. Simple: Give all the raw climate data to scientists in a related geoscience field and get them to process and interpret the data so as to see whether there's an interpretation that shows effects from greenhouse gases to be relatively mild. If they can't do it, and they conclude that GHG release is indeed a serious problem, I'd be well on my way to believing.

  The ideal people to undertake such a study already exist in large numbers: the thousands of oil company geophysicists and geologists. Requirements: they would need: familiarity with scientific research methods, meaning they should have PhDs;
                                              to have recorded, processed and/or interpreted real Earth data;
                                              a minimum of 7 years' geoscience experience;
                                              to come highly recommended for their scientific accomplishments;
                                              experience with modeling geoscience data;
                                              familarity with the data of historical geology;
                                              an eagerness to participate in such project;
                                              support from government or oil company;
                                              no possibility of getting post-project grant money to further their climate research for at least 3 years;
                                              to have no history of trying to alarm people about impending disasters from GHG.
  You will say, "These people will tend to be biased against finding a hazard from GHG!" Exactly. That's the kind of bias needed to counter the prevailing biases. As scientists they will be no more likely (and possibly less so) to cheat with the data than the climate scientists we're all familiar with--those who prosper by persuading people to give them money, where alarmism is a most effective method of persuasion.

  Major oil companies worldwide would likely be more than willing to provide and support some of their best researchers for such a project.

  Before world governments traumatize their economies by requiring huge cuts in GHG emissions, it would seem imperative to invest five years or so in a project of this sort. Best of all, it could remove my skepticism. : )


    ----- Original Message -----
    From: Don Winterstein
    To: Iain Strachan
    Cc: AmericanScientificAffiliation
    Sent: Wednesday, December 02, 2009 12:33 AM
    Subject: Re: [asa] Phil Jones Stepping Down..

    It's true that few people would like to see the planet destroyed for human habitation. (There'll always be some.)

    However, I recall instances where certain ardent supporters of AGW seemed to want to attribute adverse weather phenomena to AGW, and I've sensed their disappointment when, for example, large portions of this country (if not the whole thing) were cooler than usual for much of this year. That is, there seems to be a desire among some to point to actual weather conditions as "proof" that the models are on track. Support for AGW predictions would surely go up if people could actually feel the world getting warmer instead of cooler, etc.

    So I suspect not a few ardent AGW supporters would like to see dramatic bad effects of GW. Then they'd be able to rub their skeptical friends' noses in them.

    As a former Earth scientist I remain skeptical about the significance of the "A" in AGW. The hacked/whistle-blown emails increase my skepticism. Apart from them, my skepticism has two primary sources: (1) Earth is extremely complicated and messy, very difficult to predict in any detail, and the data are often messy. I get that from my experience as a scientist. (2) The issue has been and still is extremely political, and many of the scientists involved are obviously political. I simply don't trust scientists who have obvious political motives connected to their field of investigation.

    My experience with some national lab scientists leads me to predict how this email investigation will turn out: The email authors will be busy concocting stories to "explain" their comments, they'll get buy-in from all their friends, everything will turn out to have been as innocent as newly fallen snow. That's how things work in the real world. --That is, unless they get an adversary involved who's really feisty, smart and tough. What are the chances?


      ----- Original Message -----
      From: Iain Strachan
      To: John Walley
      Cc: Rich Blinne ; AmericanScientificAffiliation
      Sent: Tuesday, December 01, 2009 11:35 PM
      Subject: Re: [asa] Phil Jones Stepping Down..

      On Wed, Dec 2, 2009 at 1:01 AM, John Walley <> wrote:

        This doesn't address the comments of manipulating the peer review process and all the incriminating comments in the code.

        I am sure the faithful will find solace in it but judging from the fallout so far, I would say that most of the public are not buying this.

      How many more times is it necessary to say this? NO-ONE finds "solace" in the thought that the planet is going to rack and ruin!!! What a ridiculous suggestion! I found solace in your original post, because on reading it hastily I thought that maybe there was some hope AGW wasn't true. But when I saw through it the whole thing began to have an unpleasant smell. When I saw that it was most likely the result of cherry picking the juicy bits by taking them out of context it didn't seem to offer so much false hope.



        I would say its been a bad week for AGW.


        From: Rich Blinne <>
        To: John Walley <>
        Cc: AmericanScientificAffiliation <>
        Sent: Tue, December 1, 2009 7:17:40 PM
        Subject: Re: [asa] Phil Jones Stepping Down..

        On Tue, Dec 1, 2009 at 4:54 PM, John Walley <> wrote:

          Climate scientist at center of e-mail controversy to step down

          By Juliet Eilperin
          Washington Post Staff Writer
          Tuesday, December 1, 2009 3:45 PM

          A scientist who is one of the central figures in the controversy over hacked e-mails from the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit announced Tuesday that he is stepping down while the university investigates the incident.
          Climate skeptics have seized on several e-mails from Phil Jones, director of the university's Climatic Research Unit, to other researchers as evidence that prominent scientists have sought to silence their voice in the debate over global warming. The e-mails were pirated and posted online last month.
          "What is most important is that CRU continues its world leading research with as little interruption and diversion as possible," Jones said in a statement. "After a good deal of consideration I have decided that the best way to achieve this is by stepping aside from the Director's role during the course of the independent review and am grateful to the University for agreeing to this. The Review process will have my full support."
          East Anglia's Vice-Chancellor Professor Edward Acton said he had "accepted Professor Jones's offer to stand aside during this period. It is an important step to ensure that CRU can continue to operate normally and the independent review can conduct its work into the allegations."
          Action added the university will disclose details of the probe, including who will head it and how long it will last "within days."
          Marc Morano, who edits the climate skeptic blog,, welcomed the news with an e-mail stating, "One Down: ClimateGate Scientist Phil Jones to temporarily step down... 'pending investigation into allegations that he overstated case for man-made climate change.'"

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        From the UEA:

        CRU Update 1 December

        Professor Phil Jones has today announced that he will stand aside as Director of the Climatic Research Unit until the completion of an independent Review resulting from allegations following the hacking and publication of emails from the Unit.

        Professor Jones said: "What is most important is that CRU continues its world leading research with as little interruption and diversion as possible. After a good deal of consideration I have decided that the best way to achieve this is by stepping aside from the Director's role during the course of the independent review and am grateful to the University for agreeing to this. The Review process will have my full support."

        Vice-Chancellor Professor Edward Acton said: "I have accepted Professor Jones's offer to stand aside during this period. It is an important step to ensure that CRU can continue to operate normally and the independent review can conduct its work into the allegations.

        “We will announce details of the Independent Review, including its terms of reference, timescale and the chair, within days. I am delighted that Professor Peter Liss, FRS, CBE, will become acting director.”

        The University of East Anglia has previously released the following press release and statements from Prof Trevor Davies, Pro-Vice-Chancellor for Research, Prof Phil Jones, head of the Climatic Research Unit, and from CRU.

        CRU climate data already ‘over 95%’ available

        Over 95% of the CRU climate data set concerning land surface temperatures has been accessible to climate researchers, sceptics and the public for several years the University of East Anglia has confirmed.

        “It is well known within the scientific community and particularly those who are sceptical of climate change that over 95% of the raw station data has been accessible through the Global Historical Climatology Network for several years. We are quite clearly not hiding information which seems to be the speculation on some blogs and by some media commentators,” commented the University’s Pro-Vice-Chancellor, Research Enterprise and Engagement Professor Trevor Davies.

        The University will make all the data accessible as soon as they are released from a range of non-publication agreements. Publication will be carried out in collaboration with the Met Office Hadley Centre.

        The procedure for releasing these data, which are mainly owned by National Meteorological Services (NMSs) around the globe, is by direct contact between the permanent representatives of NMSs (in the UK the Met Office).

        “We are grateful for the necessary support of the Met Office in requesting the permissions for releasing the information but understand that responses may take several months and that some countries may refuse permission due to the economic value of the data,” continued Professor Davies.

        The remaining data, to be published when permissions are given, generally cover areas of the world where there are fewer data collection stations.

        “CRU’s full data will be published in the interests of research transparency when we have the necessary agreements. It is worth reiterating that our conclusions correlate well to those of other scientists based on the separate data sets held by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS),” concluded Professor Davies.

        Statement from Professor Trevor Davies, Pro-Vice-Chancellor, Research

        The publication of a selection of the emails and data stolen from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) has led to some questioning of the climate science research published by CRU and others. There is nothing in the stolen material which indicates that peer-reviewed publications by CRU, and others, on the nature of global warming and related climate change are not of the highest-quality of scientific investigation and interpretation. CRU’s peer-reviewed publications are consistent with, and have contributed to, the overwhelming scientific consensus that the climate is being strongly influenced by human activity. The interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land, and ice mean that the strongly-increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere do not produce a uniform year-on-year increase in global temperature. On time-scales of 5-10 years, however, there is a broad scientific consensus that the Earth will continue to warm, with attendant changes in the climate, for the foreseeable future. It is important, for all countries, that this warming is slowed down, through substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the most dangerous impacts of climate change. Respected international research groups, using other data sets, have come to the same conclusion.

        The University of East Anglia and CRU are committed to scientific integrity, open debate and enhancing understanding. This includes a commitment to the international peer-review system upon which progress in science relies. It is this tried and tested system which has underpinned the assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It is through that process that we can engage in respectful and informed debate with scientists whose analyses appear not to be consistent with the current overwhelming consensus on climate change

        The publication of a selection of stolen data is the latest example of a sustained and, in some instances, a vexatious campaign which may have been designed to distract from reasoned debate about the nature of the urgent action which world governments must consider to mitigate, and adapt to, climate change. We are committed to furthering this debate despite being faced with difficult circumstances related to a criminal breach of our security systems and our concern to protect colleagues from the more extreme behaviour of some who have responded in irrational and unpleasant ways to the publication of personal information.

        There has been understandable interest in the progress and outcome of the numerous requests under information legislation for large numbers of the data series held by CRU. The University takes its responsibilities under the Freedom of Information Act 2000, Environmental Information Regulations 2004, and the Data Protection Act 1998 very seriously and has, in all cases, handled and responded to requests in accordance with its obligations under each particular piece of legislation. Where appropriate, we have consulted with the Information Commissioners Office and have followed their advice.

        In relation to the specific requests at issue here, we have handled and responded to each request in a consistent manner in compliance with the appropriate legislation. No record has been deleted, altered, or otherwise dealt with in any fashion with the intent of preventing the disclosure of all, or any part, of the requested information. Where information has not been disclosed, we have done so in accordance with the provisions of the relevant legislation and have so informed the requester.

        The Climatic Research Unit holds many data series, provided to the Unit over a period of several decades, from a number of nationally-funded institutions and other research organisations around the world, with specific agreements made over restrictions in the dissemination of those original data. All of these individual series have been used in CRU’s analyses. It is a time-consuming process to attempt to gain approval from these organisations to release the data. Since some of them were provided decades ago, it has sometimes been necessary to track down the successors of the original organisations. It is clearly in the public interest that these data are released once we have succeeded in gaining the approval of collaborators. Some who have requested the data will have been aware of the scale of the exercise we have had to undertake. Much of these data are already available from the websites of the Global Historical Climate Data Network and the Goddard Institute for Space Science.

        Given the degree to which we collaborate with other organisations around the world, there is also an understandable interest in the computer security systems we have in place in CRU and UEA. Although we were confident that our systems were appropriate, experience has shown that determined and skilled people, who are prepared to engage in criminal activity, can sometimes hack into apparently secure systems. Highly-protected government organisations around the world have also learned this to their cost.

        We have, therefore, decided to conduct an independent review, which will address the issue of data security, an assessment of how we responded to a deluge of Freedom of Information requests, and any other relevant issues which the independent reviewer advises should be addressed.

        Statement from Professor Phil Jones, Head of the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia.

        In the frenzy of the past few days, the most vital issue is being overshadowed: we face enormous challenges ahead if we are to continue to live on this planet.

        One has to wonder if it is a coincidence that this email correspondence has been stolen and published at this time. This may be a concerted attempt to put a question mark over the science of climate change in the run-up to the Copenhagen talks.

        That the world is warming is based on a range of sources: not only temperature records but other indicators such as sea level rise, glacier retreat and less Arctic sea ice.

        Our global temperature series tallies with those of other, completely independent, groups of scientists working for NASA and the National Climate Data Center in the United States, among others. Even if you were to ignore our findings, theirs show the same results. The facts speak for themselves; there is no need for anyone to manipulate them.

        We have been bombarded by Freedom of Information requests to release the temperature data that are provided to us by meteorological services around the world via a large network of weather stations. This information is not ours to give without the permission of the meteorological services involved. We have responded to these Freedom of Information requests appropriately and with the knowledge and guidance of the Information Commissioner.

        We have stated that we hope to gain permission from each of these services to publish their data in the future and we are in the process of doing so.

        My colleagues and I accept that some of the published emails do not read well. I regret any upset or confusion caused as a result. Some were clearly written in the heat of the moment, others use colloquialisms frequently used between close colleagues.

        We are, and have always been, scrupulous in ensuring that our science publications are robust and honest.

        CRU statement

        Recently thousands of files and emails illegally obtained from a research server at the University of East Anglia (UEA) have been posted on various sites on the web. The emails relate to messages received or sent by the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) over the period 1996-2009.

        A selection of these emails have been taken out of context and misinterpreted as evidence that CRU has manipulated climate data to present an unrealistic picture of global warming.

        This conclusion is entirely unfounded and the evidence from CRU research is entirely consistent with independent evidence assembled by various research groups around the world.

        There is excellent agreement on the course of temperature change since 1881 between the data set that we contribute to (HadCRUT3) and two other, independent analyses of worldwide temperature measurements. There are no statistically significant differences between the warming trends in the three series since the start of the 20th century. The three independent global temperature data series have been assembled by:

        • CRU and the Met Office Hadley Centre (HadCRUT3) in the UK.
        • The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in Asheville, NC, USA.
        • The Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), part of the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) in New York.

        The warming shown by the HadCRUT3 series between the averages of the two periods (1850-99 and 2001-2005) was 0.76±0.19°C, and this is corroborated by the other two data sets.

        The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its 4th Assessment Report (AR4) published in 2007 concluded that the warming of the climate system was unequivocal. This conclusion was based not only on the observational temperature record, although this is the key piece of evidence, but on multiple strands of evidence. These factors include: long-term retreat of glaciers in most alpine regions of the world; reductions in the area of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover during the spring season; reductions in the length of the freeze season in many NH rivers and lakes; reduction in Arctic sea-ice extent in all seasons, but especially in the summer; increases in global average sea level since the 19th century; increases in the heat content of the ocean and warming of temperatures in the lower part of the atmosphere since the late 1950s.

        CRU has also been involved in reconstructions of temperature (primarily for the Northern Hemisphere) from proxy data (non-instrumental sources such as tree rings, ice cores, corals and documentary records). Similar temperature reconstructions have been developed by numerous other groups around the world. The level of uncertainty in this indirect evidence for temperature change is much greater than for the picture of temperature change shown by the instrumental data. But different reconstructions of temperature change over a longer period, produced by different researchers using different methods, show essentially the same picture of highly unusual warmth across the NH during the 20th century. The principal conclusion from these studies (summarized in IPCC AR4) is that the second half of the 20th century was very likely (90% probable) warmer than any other 50-year period in the last 500 years and likely (66% probable) the warmest in the past 1300 years.

        One particular, illegally obtained, email relates to the preparation of a figure for the WMO Statement on the Status of the Global Climate in 1999. This email referred to a “trick” of adding recent instrumental data to the end of temperature reconstructions that were based on proxy data. The requirement for the WMO Statement was for up-to-date evidence showing how temperatures may have changed over the last 1000 years. To produce temperature series that were completely up-to-date (i.e. through to 1999) it was necessary to combine the temperature reconstructions with the instrumental record, because the temperature reconstructions from proxy data ended many years earlier whereas the instrumental record is updated every month. The use of the word “trick” was not intended to imply any deception.

        Phil Jones comments further: “One of the three temperature reconstructions was based entirely on a particular set of tree-ring data that shows a strong correlation with temperature from the 19th century through to the mid-20th century, but does not show a realistic trend of temperature after 1960. This is well known and is called the ‘decline’ or ‘divergence’. The use of the term ‘hiding the decline’ was in an email written in haste. CRU has not sought to hide the decline. Indeed, CRU has published a number of articles that both illustrate, and discuss the implications of, this recent tree-ring decline, including the article that is listed in the legend of the WMO Statement figure. It is because of this trend in these tree-ring data that we know does not represent temperature change that I only show this series up to 1960 in the WMO Statement.”

        The ‘decline’ in this set of tree-ring data should not be taken to mean that there is any problem with the instrumental temperature data. As for the tree-ring decline, various manifestations of this phenomenon have been discussed by numerous authors, and its implications are clearly signposted in Chapter 6 of the IPCC AR4 report.

        Included here is a copy of the figure used in the WMO statement, together with an alternative version where the climate reconstructions and the instrumental temperatures are shown separately.

        Rich Blinne

        Member ASA

      Non timeo sed caveo

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Received on Wed Dec 2 19:38:57 2009

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