Re: [asa] The Patient Creator

From: David Clounch <david.clounch@gmail.com>
Date: Mon Jun 22 2009 - 12:00:47 EDT

Dave,

Thats a good question, thanks for pointing that out. The sample size is
indeed just 100. But there could be other hypothetical, or even real,
samples of larger size.

We haven't stated a partition function, which is what actually governs the
probability.

Thanks,
Dave

PS,

It makes me wish for an FAQ (frequently asked questions) because there are
no dumb questions. The thing I've found missing in the ASA discussion is
any kind of common ground when dealing with this. A primer would be very
useful. And I'd be the first consumer. I'm thinking I'd suggest a wiki if
it has ML (math markup language). In fact, I am building just that sort of
wiki.

On Sun, Jun 21, 2009 at 4:23 PM, Dave Wallace <wmdavid.wallace@gmail.com>wrote:

> David Clounch wrote:
>
>
>
> D: "Correct. Now, suppose I tell you the probability of being red is
> 0.0000000001. Now how many red balls are in the room?"
>
> J: "Zero."
>
> D: "That is correct. But Why?"
>
> J: "Because you can't have a fraction of a ball and still have it be a
> ball. To have one red ball you would need a sample size of 10000000000
> balls.
>
> That's interesting. As soon as you switched to such a small probability I
> immediately assumed (likely erroneously) that the hundred balls in the room
> were selected randomly from a population of 10000000000 balls of which one
> is red. Thus I would have answered not Zero but probably zero and in actual
> fact I don't know.
>
> Dave W
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Received on Mon Jun 22 12:01:50 2009

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