Re: [asa] ID vis a vis id (craps)

From: Iain Strachan <igd.strachan@gmail.com>
Date: Tue Jun 02 2009 - 05:21:27 EDT

With such freak odds, I'd suspect human intervention rather than
supernatural. Could badly balanced dice account for it?

The first week the UK had a national lottery, there were 1.1 million winners
(matching 3 or more out of six numbers in the range 1-49).

I calculated from the number of tickets sold that the probability of getting
that many winners (assuming random choices on the lottery ticket) was
10^-148.

The reason for the freak result was simple. All the numbers turned out to
be less than 32 in the first draw, and people tend to choose family
birthdays for their lottery numbers.

The moral is simple; low probabilities may indicate some non-random
phenomenon going on - but do they indicate design, or if so, what kind of
design?

However: maybe God likes gamblers?! The title of the article was "Holy
Craps".

Iain

On Tue, Jun 2, 2009 at 1:33 AM, Dehler, Bernie <bernie.dehler@intel.com>wrote:

> If evolution is ‘guided’ then it must be in a hidden way such as buried
> in probabilities. For example- a recent story on NPR was about a gambler
> playing craps and not rolling a “7” for a few hours (as I heard it
> explained). That could happen statistically- or it could be supernatural…
> no way to determine it.
>
>
>
> Story:
>
> “Craps player sets record at US casino”
>
>
> http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/news/breaking/article_826ffad0-4897-11de-b8b6-001cc4c03286.html
> **
>
> Excerpt:*
> *Saturday was a record-setting night for a novice craps player at an
> Atlantic City casino. Patricia Demauro set a new record for the longest
> craps roll, hanging on for four hours and 18 minutes at the Borgata Hotel
> Casino & Spa.
>
> Also from:
> http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1901663,00.html
>
> Excerpt:
> “It sounds like a homework problem out of a high school math book: What is
> the probability of rolling a pair of dice 154 times continuously at a craps
> table, without throwing a seven? The answer is roughly 1 in 1.56 trillion,
> and on May 23, Patricia Demauro, a New Jersey grandmother, beat those odds
> at Atlantic City's Borgata Hotel Casino and Spa.“
>
> …Bernie
> ------------------------------
>
> *From:* asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu [mailto:asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu] *On
> Behalf Of *Schwarzwald
> *Sent:* Monday, June 01, 2009 5:05 PM
> *To:* asa@calvin.edu
> *Subject:* Re: [asa] ID vis a vis id
>
>
>
> Interesting question, Bernie. I have similar though not the exact same
> views - I'd be dissatisfied with the answer as well. Especially given the
> ease with which someone could 'model' guided evolution or even intervention
> with computers. (Would that count as 'evidence for guided evolution' I
> wonder?)
>
> On Mon, Jun 1, 2009 at 7:42 PM, Dehler, Bernie <bernie.dehler@intel.com>
> wrote:
>
> Terry said:
> "How is front-loading different from deism?"
>
> Seems to me that is comparing things from two different categories.
> Front-loading is a theory as to how creation happened, while Deism is a
> view of the nature of God and how He interacts in the world.
>
> I think both Deists and evangelical Christians can accept front loading.
> Both could also probably accept special creation (for the Deist- a special
> creation followed by God's non-involvement in the world).
>
> I asked Ken Miller at his recent talk if it is possible for evolution to be
> God-guided, and I think his answer was essentially "No- because of the
> evidence for evolution," which I don't think really answered it. I already
> see and accept the evidence for evolution, so the question isn't if
> evolution happened or not, but whether God could be directing it, given the
> fact how wonderful creation is and how inept nature usually is at creating
> anything else we can observe.
>
> ...Bernie
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu [mailto:asa-owner@lists.calvin.edu] On
> Behalf Of Terry M. Gray
> Sent: Monday, June 01, 2009 2:59 PM
> To: ASA
> Subject: Re: [asa] ID vis a vis id
>
> So for those of you who are "front-loaders" I have a question. How is
> front-loading different from deism?
>
> TG
>
> On Jun 1, 2009, at 1:13 PM, David Campbell wrote:
>
> >
> >
> > On Thu, May 28, 2009 at 9:26 AM, <gmurphy10@neo.rr.com> wrote:
> >> Just to clarify my view here, I think that both quantum theory AND
> >> chaos theory have to be considered in this connection. They are
> >> not unrelated, though precisely how they should be put together is
> >> unclear.<
> >
> > Not to mention all the other things that are not amenable to precise
> > human prediction without exactly fitting the mathematical definitions
> > of chaos or falling under quantum physics.
> >
> > Interpretation of God's action in such cases will relate to one's
> > position on the predestination-free will continuum as well. More
> > emphasis on predestination would generally tend to favor a
> > "front-loaded" design view, whereas a more Arminian take would tend
> > towards favoring the idea of God adjusting things as needed. The
> > correlation is not rigid-God could decide in advance to tweak things
> > at a given point in a given way, or He could set up a largely
> > front-loaded system that still allows for some range of options, for
> > example, but it does illustrate the fact that very much of the stuff
> > brought up in discussions on ID or evolution already have a long
> > history of discussion under other theological headings.
> >
> > --
> > Dr. David Campbell
> > 425 Scientific Collections
> > University of Alabama
> > "I think of my happy condition, surrounded by acres of clams"
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe, send a message to majordomo@calvin.edu with
> > "unsubscribe asa" (no quotes) as the body of the message.
>
> ________________
> Terry M. Gray, Ph.D.
> Computer Support Scientist
> Chemistry Department
> Colorado State University
> Fort Collins, CO 80523
> (o) 970-491-7003 (f) 970-491-1801
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe, send a message to majordomo@calvin.edu with
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>
>
> To unsubscribe, send a message to majordomo@calvin.edu with
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>
>
>

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Received on Tue Jun 2 05:21:49 2009

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