Re: [asa] Re: Confirmation bias among GW dissenters, but ...

From: Rich Blinne <>
Date: Wed Apr 29 2009 - 10:34:22 EDT

On Tue, Apr 28, 2009 at 9:22 AM, William Hamilton <> wrote:

> It's not an argument I'm making. I'm only summarizing what Glenn
> Morton has told me. And yes, I agree that a 2 meter increase in sea
> level would wipe out a lot of places. And I wouldn't want to live in
> Phoenix now.

And Glenn is misrepresenting the consensus in the geological community. A
poll was take of earth scientists and among *all earth scientists, 90%
support the view that the earth has warmed significantly* since 1800. And *
82%* support the idea that *humans have caused this increase*.
*Among climatologists* specifically -- that is those that publish peer
review articles in that field -- *an astounding 97% support the idea that
humans are causing global warming*. Presumably an even higher number support
global warming in general.

The most skeptical group were petroleum geologists where only 47%
 supported anthropogenic global warming. The findings appeared January 19 in
the publication *Eos Transactions*, an online publication of the American
Geophysical Union.

Since petroleum geologists have a vested interest because moving away from
fossil fuels affects their livelihood this appears to support the idea of
confirmation bias. I guess you say the same of the climatologists but that
point is weaker since the relatively unbiased middle sides with the
climatologists and not the petroleum geologists. Regardless, it shows a
personal confirmation bias on the part of Glenn since he imputed his
personal experience amongst his petroleum geologist peers not realizing the
wider geological community disagreed. Perhaps Keith Miller could comment on
whether he believes this particular poll accurately describes the wider
geological community.

Rich Blinne
Member ASA

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Received on Wed Apr 29 10:35:33 2009

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