Re: [asa] On peak oil ...

From: <>
Date: Thu Apr 09 2009 - 17:50:55 EDT

The 400 billion barrels is not an official estimate.  It's been widely circulated but bogus.

Karl V. Evans

-----Original Message-----
From: Bill Powers <>
Sent: Thu, 9 Apr 2009 2:27 pm
Subject: Re: [asa] On peak oil ...

I was simply quoting an official source. I wasn't making it up. Really. 
On Thu, 9 Apr 2009, wrote: 
> Bill, 
> You're off by two orders of magnitude.  The estimate for the Bakken Shale is about 4 billion barrels, which is roughly what the U.S. alone uses in 6 months. 

> Karl 
> (ASA member) 
> ********************** 
> Karl V. Evans 

> -----Original Message----- 
> From: Bill Powers <> 
> To: John Burgeson (ASA member) <> 
> Cc: Glenn Morton <>; ASA <> 
> Sent: Thu, 9 Apr 2009 9:32 am 
> Subject: Re: [asa] On peak oil ... 

> The report really says very little about how we ought to prepare.  
> They suggest more research on unconventional sources of oil.  
> They mention nothing of nuclear, etc.  
> The real issue it seems is how much lead time is required to prevent a "break down" in world economies.  
> The way the economic engine tends to work=2
0is that as the costs of "conventional" (read easy) oil supplies decline and prices rise, other methods of oil recovery and energy supply will be investigated, and implemented. Some of these methods are already available in some form (e.g., shale). Indeed, with the last $4/gallon oil prices there was active discussion of implementing shale recovery in Bakken shale formation in ND and MT, estimated to be 400 billion barrels.  
> The question is one of timing and time scales. Is there enough time between the rising of oil prices, and the implementation of alternative energy sources to prevent a global collapse? Once the collapse occurs it may be that we can't afford nor are capable of imp 
> lementing alternative methods. Anyway, it makes for an interesting system's study.  
> The other alternative is to plan ahead, i.e., with only the force of foresight. This requires redirecting funds that could be used for production (i.e., wealth) to research (non-productive). Only the richer countries can afford this. It surely seems prudent to invest some (better than none), but will this be enough?  
> bill powers  
> On Thu, 9 Apr 2009, John Burgeson (ASA member) wrote:  
>> Published 12/15/2008. For the first time, the International Energy  
>> Agency has produced a date
 for peak oil. And it’s not reassuring.  
>> -- > Burgy  
>> To unsubscribe, send a message to with  
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Received on Thu Apr 9 17:53:14 2009

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