Re: [asa] Re: Glenn's blog post

From: Glenn Morton <>
Date: Wed Mar 25 2009 - 21:50:36 EDT

Hi David,

David Campbell wrote:
"The problem of present-day global warming is not the absolute
temperature but rather the rate of change. It doesn't matter whether
it was somewhat warmer in the early Holocene; what does matter is that
climate, ocean acidity, etc. are changing faster than many organisms
(including many humans) can easily adjust.I hear this rate of change
argument all the time."<<<

I hear this rate of change argument all the time. Once again, geology shows
it to be utterly false, like everything else in climate change, the recent
past has endured the same conditions and rates (or worse conditions and
higher rates of change. Let's look at what the IPCC says:

"Global mean surface temperatures have risen by 0.74C
0.18C when estimated by a linear trend over the last 100
years (1906-2005). The rate of warming over the last 50
years is almost double that over the last 100 years (0.13C
0.03C vs. 0.07C 0.02C per decade). Global mean
temperatures averaged over land and ocean surfaces, from
three different estimates, each of which has been independently
adjusted for various homogeneity issues, are consistent within
uncertainty estimates over the period 1901 to 2005 and show
similar rates of increase in recent decades. The trend is not
linear, and the warming from the fi rst 50 years of instrumental
record (1850-1899) to the last 5 years (2001-2005) is 0.76C
0.19C." Trenberth, K.E., P.D. Jones, P. Ambenje, R. Bojariu, D.
Easterling, A. Klein Tank, D. Parker, F. Rahimzadeh, J.A. Renwick, M.
Rusticucci, B. Soden and P. Zhai, 2007: Observations: Surface and
Atmospheric Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M.
Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller
(eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York,
Chapter 3, p. 237

I always want to get utterly sarcastic at times like this. Oh my gosh, .13
deg C per decade. We are all going to DIE!!!!!
The Younger Dryas period saw a change in temperature of 5 deg C in about 30
years! see Figure 3 of Alexi M. Grachev and Jeffrey P. Severinghaus "A
revised +10+ or -4 degrees C magnitude of the abrupt change in Greenland
temperature at the Younger Dryas termination using published GISP2 gas
isotope data and air thermal diffusion constants"Quaternary Science Reviews
(March 2005), 24(5-6):513-519

I have no doubt that no one will go look at that picture. It is easier to
continue to believe rather than go look up that article. But that rate of
change is about 5/3= 1.66 deg C per decade, more than 10 times what the IPCC
says is awful. These people are young-earth climatologists who never look
back at pre history. Oh yeah, when was the Younger Dryas? 11500 years ago.
It wasn't all that long ago. David, don't believe what the sheeple say.
This stuff is a big form of group-think which is quite prevalent on the
college campuses--which is another pet peeve of mine. If universities are
such bastions of independent thought, why do they all think the same thing?

I really do find the parallels between young-earth creationism and the
global warming guys to be amazing. Both groups don't look at geology and
what it tells us.

----- Original Message -----
From: "David Campbell" <>
To: "Glenn Morton" <>; "asa" <>
Sent: Wednesday, March 25, 2009 4:32 PM
Subject: Re: [asa] Re: Glenn's blog post

> Secondly, doesnt' it bother you that the deuterium temperature of the
> Vostok Ice core clearly shows that the world was hotter from 3000-10,000
> years ago than it is now, yet none of this makes it into the headlines of
> all the press releases of how we are going to kill the world with our CO2?
> Shouldn't science deal with contrary data?

Dr. David Campbell
425 Scientific Collections
University of Alabama
"I think of my happy condition, surrounded by acres of clams" 
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Received on Wed Mar 25 21:50:29 2009

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