Re: [asa] Trees don't lie

From: Glenn Morton <glennmorton@entouch.net>
Date: Sat Mar 21 2009 - 22:42:02 EDT

I would say that the climate, the weather, political systems,, economics,
the oil markets etc, are all highly nonlinear. Tell me if it is going to be
raining where you are 33 days from now. Tell me what the price of the stock
market will close at on Monday. Tell me what the price of oil will be April
23. Tell me what country will be our biggest problem in 2010. All of these
things involve nonlinearities.

And I disagree that if one cant predict from them they won't be studied.
They will be studied because they are the real equations that govern this
universe and curiousity and hope that we can predict something will ensure
their study

----- Original Message -----
From: "George Murphy" <GMURPHY10@neo.rr.com>
To: "Glenn Morton" <glennmorton@entouch.net>; "William Hamilton"
<willeugenehamilton@gmail.com>; <mrb22667@kansas.net>
Cc: "asa" <asa@calvin.edu>
Sent: Saturday, March 21, 2009 7:34 PM
Subject: Re: [asa] Trees don't lie

> For a chaotic system one can't predict the future state of the system in
> detail for any length of time. But you can often make (a) statistical
> predictions & (b) thermodynamic predictions about the overall state of the
> system. Of course these are related. If all nonlinear dynamics could do
> was to say that we can't predict anything then people wouldn't publish
> books &c on nonlinear dynamics.
>
> Shalom
> George
> http://home.roadrunner.com/~scitheologyglm
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Glenn Morton" <glennmorton@entouch.net>
> To: "George Murphy" <GMURPHY10@neo.rr.com>; "William Hamilton"
> <willeugenehamilton@gmail.com>; <mrb22667@kansas.net>
> Cc: "asa" <asa@calvin.edu>
> Sent: Saturday, March 21, 2009 3:05 PM
> Subject: Re: [asa] Trees don't lie
>
>
>> George wrote Saturday, March 21, 2009 10:11 AM
>>
>>> I agree that in some fields "expertise" is overrated. It's pretty
>>> funny, in a gallow humors way, to hear the argument that financial firms
>>> have to pay big bonuses in order to hold on to the people whose
>>> "expertise" has driven the company, & maybe the country, into the
>>> ground. OTOH there's a populist temptation to debunk the idea of
>>> expertise because then "we're just as good as they are." & it's not
>>> clear that being able to predict the future is always the best
>>> criterion.
>>
>>
>> There is no doubt that a physicist knows the equations and where it comes
>> to deterministic systems, the physicist will do way better than anyone
>> else. But, most systems we humans deal with are decidedly NOT linear or
>> deterministic. They are non-linear. And one thing that should have been
>> learned, but apparently hasn't been by many in the field of science, NO
>> ONE can predict the state of a nonlinear system after a certain period of
>> time. The physicist is as helpless as the plumber or homeless person and
>> thus, all guesses will have the equivalent chance of success.
>>
>> that is why experts differ on what the stock market will do, what the
>> weather will be like next week etc. And when it comes to global
>> warming, everyone is absolutely sure that they know what this grand
>> nonlinear system we call climate will do. They are acting as if it is a
>> linear system when it is decidedly nonlinear.
>>
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Received on Sat Mar 21 22:42:24 2009

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