Re: [asa] Problems Caused by People (er, right...)

From: John Burgeson (ASA member) <>
Date: Wed Jan 28 2009 - 12:43:26 EST

Let's reply to Janice's "argument from authority" with the following
from the net.

Published in EOS:

(note -- that web site gives the full article, 2 pages)

Note this isn't a dubious petition or an Inhofe propaganda press
release. It's a scientific peer-reviewed study that compares the view
of the public with the view of the scientific community on the issue
of global warming and the significant human contribution.


Among the general public, views are mixed, with about a 57%-38%
(Gallup poll) agreement with the significant human contribution. I've
seen other surveys with less agreement (particularly among polls
conducted during cold winter weather). We see that sort of vehement
denial among the blogosphere and various media outlets. This gives the
public the false impression that there's a raging debate among
scientists on the core issue, creating further doubt.

Among scientists, there's very little doubt. The study's authors
breaks it down. Among non-climate scientists and non-publishers,
there's a 77%-8% (nearly 10 to 1) agreement (the remaining 15%
unsure). 8% is pretty small considering the political implications of
the topic. This consensus increases among active published scientists
to 89%-3%. Among active climate scientists, it's about 97%-1%. The
greatest doubt is held by petroleum geologists (what a surprise).

Thus, what follows is the key conclusion:

"It seems that the debate on the authenticity of global warming and
the role played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those
who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long- term climate
processes. The challenge, rather, appears to be how to effectively
communicate this fact to policy makers and to a public that continues
to mistakenly perceive debate among scientists."

On 1/28/09, Lynn Walker <> wrote:
> On Wed, Jan 28, 2009 at 2:28 AM, Michael Roberts <
>> wrote:
>> Reading this quickly I thought it was Daily Express comment and thought
>> "typical".
>> But still many live in an alternative world where science and common
>> sense
>> do not apply......
> I agree.
> *
> *Want to see if you can *spot the blatant flaws in the scientific reasoning
> in this doozy?
> *In the UK Telegraph they said, "According to the scriptures .... I mean,
> *the
> computer model simulations*, scientists have made a breakthrough in man's
> desire to control the forces of nature - unveiling plans to weaken
> hurricanes and steer them off course, to prevent tragedies such as
> Hurricane
> Katrina. Computer models show that they can successfully spread pulverized
> car tires through the clouds to affect the path of a hurricane.
> *Scientists a step closer to steering hurricanes
> *By Tim Shipman in Washington
> Last Updated: 2:25AM BST 24 Oct 2007
> Lynn
>> ----- Original Message ----- From: "Murray Hogg"
>> <>
>> To: "ASA" <>; "Christians_In_Science" <
>> Sent: Wednesday, January 28, 2009 7:05 AM
>> Subject: [asa] Problems Caused by People (er, right...)
>> A user comment from the Daily Express - can anybody spot the subtle flaw
>> in
>>> scientific reasoning?
>>> <cite>
>>> Al Gore and the likes still have not realized the obvious about the
>>> earthquakes in Southern California. Their scientific observations should
>>> recognize that when you have that many people living on the edge of a
>>> land
>>> mass that said land mass is going to crack and fall into the ocean.
>>> Hence
>>> the earthquakes that happen in that region. You would think these master
>>> scientists could figure that one out!
>>> </cite>
>>> (ref:
>>> Blessings,
>>> Murray
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Received on Wed Jan 28 12:43:49 2009

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