Re: [asa] NCDC Annual Results for 2008

From: Lynn Walker <lynn.wlkr@gmail.com>
Date: Fri Dec 19 2008 - 00:13:19 EST

*
NOAA and NASA Estimate 2008 will be 9th Warmest for the Globe - Don't Buy It
*ICECAP ^ | December 17, 2008 | Joseph D'Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/noaa_and_nasa_estimate_2008_will_be_9th_warmest_for_the_globe_dont_buy_it1/

Posted on *Thursday, December 18, 2008 11:03:46 PM* by
*CedarDave<http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2151250//~cedardave/>

*Though it doesn't rank with the Bernie Madhoff's Ponzi scheme, it is
nonetheless criminal at a time when important decisions are about to be made
that will affect our way of living and economic well-being.

According to a NOAA Press Release yesterday, NCDC's ranking of 2008 as ninth
warmest if expected trends continue compares to a similar ranking of ninth
warmest based on an analysis by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
The NASA analysis indicates that the January-November global temperature was
0.76 degree F (0.42 degree C) above the 20th century mean. The NOAA and NASA
analyses differ slightly in methodology, but both use data from NOAA's
National Climatic Data Center - the federal government's official source for
climate data.

Don't believe a word of it. UAH MSU satellite data suggest 2008 will end up
about the 15th warmest (16th coldest) in their 30 years of lower
tropospheric data. The NASA, NOAA and Hadley data bases are seriously
contaminated and the agencies are intentionally ignoring the issues as they
are agenda driven with inflated budgets because of the alleged global
warming.

*NOAA has actually gone as far as to pull out the urbanization (urban heat
island or UHI) adjustment from the US data and there is very little to no
urban adjustment made to the global data based on the flawed papers by
Peterson and Parker which suggest UHI has little effect on global trends.
Ignored are the many other papers from some of the worlds best
climatologists worldwide that suggest it produces significant contamination.
*

Add to that the fact that more than 2/3rds of the world's stations (most
rural) have dropped out and or are often missing monthly data, 69% of the
first nearly 600 US stations evaluated by Anthony Watts surface
stations.orgare poor or very poorly sited with only 4% meeting
official standards and no
changes were made for the known biases of new instrumentation.

Not less than half a dozen peer reviewed papers have suggested the warming
is exaggerated by up to 50%. This would put 2008 somewhere nearer the middle
of the pack of the 114+ years in the global data bases not near the top. It
also belies the claim that the 10 warmest years have occurred in the last
dozen years. Read more here on the important data integrity issue:
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/DataIntegrity.doc

<.>

*2008 Tropical Temperatures
*by Steve McIntyre on December 18th, 2008

The blog world is jump starting discussion of 2008 annual temperatures.
Yesterday at 1:56 pm Eastern, NASA employee Gavin Schmidt and climate
modeler, purely in his "private" capacity,
posted<http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/12/2008-temperature-summaries-and-spin/>an
article arguing that the results were consistent with climate models -
an
activity that lesser minds might think relates to his employment.

Lucia commented
here<http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/gavin-spins-with-spaghetti-diagrams/>,
perhaps redundantly, that Schmidt's comment was "tendentious twaddle".

Continue reading: http://www.climateaudit.org/

<>

*... NOAA is an outlier with RSS and MSU.....
*
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/noaa_august_and_summer_numbers_again_not_jiving_with_satellite_data/

Tom Karl's following in James Hansen's big foosteps. *As global warming
fizzles, they have taken steps to manipulate the data *to make it look like
it is still occurring. We reported in June the discontinuity between NOAA
projecting the world was the eighth warmest June on record for the globe in
the 129 years since records began in 1880. At the same time, the University
of Alabama, Huntsville came out with their global June assessment and they
reported the 9th coldest in the 30 years of records in their data base. In
fact, their global mean was actually below the average (base period
1979-1998) with a value of -0.11C (-0.19F). This is a full 1.1F degrees
colder than the NOAA guesstimate. The other NASA satellite source, RSS had
June as the 13th coldest out of the last 30 years.

..In this press
release<http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080911_ncdcsummerwrap.html>,
NOAA's National Climate Data Center (NCDC) claimed the June-August 2008
summer season was the 22nd warmest on record for the contiguous United
States. Also, last month ended as the 39th warmest August for the contiguous
(lower 48) United States, based on records dating back to 1895.

Compare that with the UAH MSU
based<http://mclean.ch/climate/Tropos_temps.htm>satellite depiction
for the lower
48 states <http://mclean.ch/climate/Tropos_temps.htm>. They show the United
states had the 13th coldest August in 30 years (with an anomaly of 0.05 for
the 1979-1998 average). They also show the summer was the 12th coldest in 30
years with a small anomaly of 0.036F.

<>

*Shaping Economic Analysis to Suit Climate Politics
*http://icecap.us/index.php

<>

*Climate Report Held Following Exposure
*http://cei.org/node/21072

"The authors go to great lengths to obscure their inability to credibly
articulate human influence on the climate...They do so through selectivity
in research, alarmist language, failure to provide relevance or context to
many of their claims, and generally throughout with transparent
*advocacy*in tone and content."

The Climate Change Research Program issued a "Unified Synthesis Report" in
July for public comment, claiming to synthesize 21 studies to present an
alarming series of regional climate change projections. Unfortunately, not
only can climate models not credibly do that but only 8 of the 21 studies
had actually been completed and released. For these and other reasons the
report violates the federal Information Quality Act and also the U.S. Global
Change Research Act, and cannot be permissibly disseminated. ... This move,
* though likely only temporary*, is a victory for sound science and public
integrity and a setback to the forces of global warming alarmism. .. August
21, 2008

Lynn

On Thu, Dec 18, 2008 at 4:18 PM, Rich Blinne <rich.blinne@gmail.com> wrote:

> Here's the latest climate numbers for the year 2008. Even though the year
> started slowly because of La Nina we ended up with the ninth warmest. Ten
> year trends also match predictions by the climate models for the three major
> organizations that track surface temperature. Here's the wrap up from Gavin
> Schmitt:
>
>
>> The bottom line: In the GISTEMP, HadCRU and NCDC analyses D-N 2008 were at
>> 0.43, 0.42 and 0.47ēC above the 1951-1980 baseline (respectively). In
>> GISTEMP both October and November came in quite warm (0.58ēC), the former
>> edging up slightly on last month's estimate as more data came in. This puts
>> 2008 at #9 (or #8) in the yearly rankings, but given the uncertainty in the
>> estimates, the real ranking could be anywhere between #6 or #15. More
>> robustly, the most recent 5-year averages are all significantly higher than
>> any in the last century. The last decade is by far the warmest decade
>> globally in the record.
>>
>
> Here's the NCDC Summary:
>
> Major Highlights
>
> NOAA: Global Temperature for November Fourth Warmest on Record
>
> The year 2008 is on track to be one of the ten warmest years on record for
> the globe, based on the combined average of worldwide land and ocean surface
> temperatures, according to a preliminary analysis by NOAA's National
> Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. For November alone, the month is
> fourth warmest all-time globally [RDB Note: October was the second warmest
> with land temperatures being the warmest.], for the combined land and ocean
> surface temperature. The early assessment is based on records dating back to
> 1880.
>
> Global Temperature Highlights - 2008
>
> The combined global land and ocean surface temperature from January -
> November was 0.86 degree F (0.48 degree C) above the 20th century mean of
> 57.2 degrees F (14.0 degrees C).
>
> Separately, the global land surface temperature for 2008, through November
> was fifth warmest, with an average temperature 1.44 degrees F (0.80 degree
> C) above the 20th century mean of 48.1 degrees F (9.0 degrees C).
>
> Also separately, the global ocean surface temperature for 2008, through
> November was 0.67 degree F (0.37 degree C) above the 20th century mean of
> 61.0 degrees F (16.1 degrees C).
>
> Global Temperature Highlights - November 2008
>
> The November combined global land and ocean surface temperature was 1.06
> degrees F (0.59 degree C) above the 20th century mean of 55.2 degrees F
> (12.9 degrees C).
>
> Separately, the November 2008 global land surface temperature was fourth
> warmest on record and was 2.11 degrees F (1.17 degrees C) above the 20th
> century mean of 42.6 degrees F (5.9 degrees C).
>
> For November, the global ocean surface temperature was 0.68 degree F (0.38
> degree C) above the 20th century mean of 60.4 degrees F (15.8 degrees C).
>
> Other Global Highlights for 2008
>
> In the tropical Pacific, 2008 was dominated by El Niņo-Southern Oscillation
> neutral conditions. La Niņa conditions that began the year had dissipated by
> June. [RDB Note: this is significant. La Niņa and being at the solar
> minimum caused the denialists to declare the great global cooling. Once we
> got to ENSO neutral things went back to "normal".]
>
> Arctic sea ice extent in 2008 reached its second lowest melt season extent
> on record in September. The minimum of 1.74 million square miles (4.52
> million square kilometers) reached on September 12th was 0.86 million square
> miles (2.24 million square kilometers) below the 1979-2000 average minimum
> extent.
>
> The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was the third most costly on record,
> after 2005 and 2004, and the fourth most active year since 1944. This was
> the first season with a major hurricane (Category 3 or above) each month
> from July through November. With the exception of the South Indian Ocean,
> all other tropical cyclone regions recorded near to below-average activity
> during 2008. Globally, there were 89 named tropical cyclones, with 41
> reaching the equivalent of hurricane strength (74 mph), and 20 achieving the
> equivalent of major hurricane status (111 mph or greater) based on the
> Saffir-Simpson scale.
>
> The United States recorded a preliminary total of just under 1,700
> tornadoes from January - November. This ranks 2008 second behind 2004 for
> the most tornadoes in a year, since reliable records began in 1953.
>
> Torrential rains caused widespread flooding in parts of Vietnam, Ethiopia,
> northern Venezuela, Brazil, Panama, and the northern Philippines during
> November. Several million people were displaced and nearly 200 fatalities
> were reported. Monsoonal rainfall was much above average over many regions
> in 2008. Mumbai, India recorded its greatest June rainfall in seven years,
> while Hanoi, Vietnam observed its greatest October rains since 1984.
>
> Persistent severe to exceptional drought plagued portions of south central
> Texas and the Southeast U.S. in 2008. Based on the Palmer Drought Index, the
> 2008 percent area of the contiguous United States experiencing
> moderate-extreme drought peaked at 31 percent in June-July. Australia's
> worst drought in a century eased early in 2008, but drought conditions
> continued in parts of the country.
>
> Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in November was 12.66 million square
> miles (32.78 million square kilometers). This is 0.50 million square miles
> (1.29 million square kilometers) below the 1966-2008 November average.
> Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent has been below average for most of
> 2008.
>
> The analyses in NCDC's global reports are based on preliminary data, which
> are subject to revision. Additional quality control is applied to the data
> when late reports are received several weeks after the end of the month and
> as increased scientific methods improve NCDC's processing algorithms.
>
> NCDC's ranking of 2008 as ninth warmest compares to a similar ranking of
> ninth warmest based on an analysis by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space
> Studies. The NASA analysis indicates that the January-November global
> temperature was 0.76 degree F (0.42 degree C) above the 20th century mean.
> The NOAA and NASA analyses differ slightly in methodology, but both use data
> from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center - the Federal government's
> official source for climate data.
>
> NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the
> depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our
> coastal and marine resources.
>

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Received on Fri Dec 19 00:13:56 2008

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