[asa] Re: NCDC Annual Results for 2008

From: John Burgeson (ASA member) <hossradbourne@gmail.com>
Date: Thu Dec 18 2008 - 17:09:20 EST

Continued thanks, Rich, for providing this report.

On 12/18/08, Rich Blinne <rich.blinne@gmail.com> wrote:
> Here's the latest climate numbers for the year 2008. Even though the year
> started slowly because of La Nina we ended up with the ninth warmest. Ten
> year trends also match predictions by the climate models for the three
> major
> organizations that track surface temperature. Here's the wrap up from Gavin
> Schmitt:
>
>
>> The bottom line: In the GISTEMP, HadCRU and NCDC analyses D-N 2008 were
>> at
>> 0.43, 0.42 and 0.47ēC above the 1951-1980 baseline (respectively). In
>> GISTEMP both October and November came in quite warm (0.58ēC), the former
>> edging up slightly on last month's estimate as more data came in. This
>> puts
>> 2008 at #9 (or #8) in the yearly rankings, but given the uncertainty in
>> the
>> estimates, the real ranking could be anywhere between #6 or #15. More
>> robustly, the most recent 5-year averages are all significantly higher
>> than
>> any in the last century. The last decade is by far the warmest decade
>> globally in the record.
>>
>
> Here's the NCDC Summary:
>
> Major Highlights
>
> NOAA: Global Temperature for November Fourth Warmest on Record
>
> The year 2008 is on track to be one of the ten warmest years on record for
> the globe, based on the combined average of worldwide land and ocean
> surface
> temperatures, according to a preliminary analysis by NOAA's National
> Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. For November alone, the month is
> fourth warmest all-time globally [RDB Note: October was the second warmest
> with land temperatures being the warmest.], for the combined land and ocean
> surface temperature. The early assessment is based on records dating back
> to
> 1880.
>
> Global Temperature Highlights - 2008
>
> The combined global land and ocean surface temperature from January -
> November was 0.86 degree F (0.48 degree C) above the 20th century mean of
> 57.2 degrees F (14.0 degrees C).
>
> Separately, the global land surface temperature for 2008, through November
> was fifth warmest, with an average temperature 1.44 degrees F (0.80 degree
> C) above the 20th century mean of 48.1 degrees F (9.0 degrees C).
>
> Also separately, the global ocean surface temperature for 2008, through
> November was 0.67 degree F (0.37 degree C) above the 20th century mean of
> 61.0 degrees F (16.1 degrees C).
>
> Global Temperature Highlights - November 2008
>
> The November combined global land and ocean surface temperature was 1.06
> degrees F (0.59 degree C) above the 20th century mean of 55.2 degrees F
> (12.9 degrees C).
>
> Separately, the November 2008 global land surface temperature was fourth
> warmest on record and was 2.11 degrees F (1.17 degrees C) above the 20th
> century mean of 42.6 degrees F (5.9 degrees C).
>
> For November, the global ocean surface temperature was 0.68 degree F (0.38
> degree C) above the 20th century mean of 60.4 degrees F (15.8 degrees C).
>
> Other Global Highlights for 2008
>
> In the tropical Pacific, 2008 was dominated by El Niņo-Southern Oscillation
> neutral conditions. La Niņa conditions that began the year had dissipated
> by
> June. [RDB Note: this is significant. La Niņa and being at the solar
> minimum
> caused the denialists to declare the great global cooling. Once we got to
> ENSO neutral things went back to "normal".]
>
> Arctic sea ice extent in 2008 reached its second lowest melt season extent
> on record in September. The minimum of 1.74 million square miles (4.52
> million square kilometers) reached on September 12th was 0.86 million
> square
> miles (2.24 million square kilometers) below the 1979-2000 average minimum
> extent.
>
> The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was the third most costly on record,
> after 2005 and 2004, and the fourth most active year since 1944. This was
> the first season with a major hurricane (Category 3 or above) each month
> from July through November. With the exception of the South Indian Ocean,
> all other tropical cyclone regions recorded near to below-average activity
> during 2008. Globally, there were 89 named tropical cyclones, with 41
> reaching the equivalent of hurricane strength (74 mph), and 20 achieving
> the
> equivalent of major hurricane status (111 mph or greater) based on the
> Saffir-Simpson scale.
>
> The United States recorded a preliminary total of just under 1,700
> tornadoes
> from January - November. This ranks 2008 second behind 2004 for the most
> tornadoes in a year, since reliable records began in 1953.
>
> Torrential rains caused widespread flooding in parts of Vietnam, Ethiopia,
> northern Venezuela, Brazil, Panama, and the northern Philippines during
> November. Several million people were displaced and nearly 200 fatalities
> were reported. Monsoonal rainfall was much above average over many regions
> in 2008. Mumbai, India recorded its greatest June rainfall in seven years,
> while Hanoi, Vietnam observed its greatest October rains since 1984.
>
> Persistent severe to exceptional drought plagued portions of south central
> Texas and the Southeast U.S. in 2008. Based on the Palmer Drought Index,
> the
> 2008 percent area of the contiguous United States experiencing
> moderate-extreme drought peaked at 31 percent in June-July. Australia's
> worst drought in a century eased early in 2008, but drought conditions
> continued in parts of the country.
>
> Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in November was 12.66 million square
> miles (32.78 million square kilometers). This is 0.50 million square miles
> (1.29 million square kilometers) below the 1966-2008 November average.
> Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent has been below average for most of
> 2008.
>
> The analyses in NCDC's global reports are based on preliminary data, which
> are subject to revision. Additional quality control is applied to the data
> when late reports are received several weeks after the end of the month and
> as increased scientific methods improve NCDC's processing algorithms.
>
> NCDC's ranking of 2008 as ninth warmest compares to a similar ranking of
> ninth warmest based on an analysis by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space
> Studies. The NASA analysis indicates that the January-November global
> temperature was 0.76 degree F (0.42 degree C) above the 20th century mean.
> The NOAA and NASA analyses differ slightly in methodology, but both use
> data
> from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center - the Federal government's
> official source for climate data.
>
> NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the
> depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages
> our
> coastal and marine resources.
>

-- 
Burgy
www.burgy.50megs.com
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Received on Thu Dec 18 17:13:19 2008

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