[asa] RE: $4 gas is here to stay (fwd)

From: gordon brown <Gordon.Brown@Colorado.EDU>
Date: Sat Dec 13 2008 - 19:50:20 EST

---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Sat, 13 Dec 2008 18:39:39 -0600
From: Glenn Morton <glennmorton@entouch.net>
To: 'Janice Matchett' <janmatch@earthlink.net>
Cc: Gordon.Brown@Colorado.EDU, john_walley@yahoo.com, hossradbourne@gmail.com,
     Bertsche@aol.com
Subject: RE: $4 gas is here to stay

Tell Nathan that the only thing I disagree with his post on was the thought
that oil companies would drill in anticipation of the price rise. He is
right on everything else. This wont happen because of the way we do economic
analysis in the business. Projects have to pass the hurdle of making money
at half price du jour economically speaking. Most projects that were being
undertaken over the past year or so were judged at $70/bbl. We do that
because we know we are in a business with lots of price volatility. Today
projects are going to have to pass muster at about $20/bbl, and almost
nothing will. Drilling activity is stopping, rigs are being stacked and
people being let go. At the start of December there were 80 rigs in the
Gulf of Mexico. 15 were stacked (meaning in port waiting business), 2 were
in shipyards, but the demand is expected to be only for 55 of them very
shortly. Most of the rig stacking onshore will take place next year after
the contracts run out.

From: Janice Matchett [mailto:janmatch@earthlink.net]
Sent: Friday, December 12, 2008 9:08 AM
To: glennmorton@entouch.net
Cc: Gordon.Brown@Colorado.EDU; john_walley@yahoo.com;
hossradbourne@gmail.com; Bertsche@aol.com
Subject: Re: $4 gas is here to stay

Hi Glenn,

I asked a friend to comment on what you posted on the ASA list last Friday.
If you're interested in his reply, you will find it below.

~ Janice

Date: Fri, 5 Dec 2008 21:00:57 -0600
From: Glenn Morton glennmorton@entouch.net
To:The American Scientific Affiliation (ASA) email list:
http://www.calvin.edu/archive/asa/200812/0130.html
Subject: $4 gas is here to stay

To: nathanbedford

When you get time, would you give me your take on what I posted here?:

Here's some interesting commentary by geologist, Glenn R. Morton that
relates to your thread (he also links to a Peter Schiff commentary):
"In July, I saw that the demand for oil was dropping like a rock. I sold out
all my oil investments and then after it had fallen by 30%, I thought it was
safe to buy back in. Boy was I wrong. ..." [snip] Continue here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2144094/posts?page=11#11

Thanks, Nate!

17 <http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2146735/posts?page=17#17>
posted on Thursday, December 11, 2008 9:43:07 AM by Matchett-PI
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2146735/posts?page=17#17

Nate replied today, here:

To: Matchett-PI

A very grim and very plausible reprise of the economic prospects. I agree
with the thrust of the article and it was these thoughts that prompted my
post. .."

Continue reading his reply, here:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2146735/posts?page=18#18

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Received on Sat Dec 13 19:50:54 2008

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