RE: [asa] $4 gas is here to stay (fwd)

From: gordon brown <Gordon.Brown@Colorado.EDU>
Date: Thu Dec 11 2008 - 10:56:18 EST

From Glenn Morton:

---------- Forwarded message ----------
Date: Thu, 11 Dec 2008 06:16:32 -0600
From: Glenn Morton <glennmorton@entouch.net>
To: 'Rich Blinne' <rich.blinne@gmail.com>,
     'gordon brown' <Gordon.Brown@Colorado.EDU>,
     'Randy Isaac' <randyisaac@comcast.net>,
     "'John Burgeson (ASA member)'" <hossradbourne@gmail.com>
Cc: 'asa' <asa@calvin.edu>
Subject: RE: [asa] $4 gas is here to stay (fwd)

Rich raises an interesting point. Can we become more efficient. Of course we
can. All businesses are engaged in becoming more productive (which means
more goods with less people using less energy etc). Is there waste in our
current system of energy use. Nowhere did I say that there wasn't.

Indeed, in my note which Rich quotes, I didn't even use the term wealth, so
he has a wonderful response to something I didn't even talk about.

But let's look at the numbers presentd by Dr. Chu. Why is the US such an
energy hog? He makes it sound like a bad thing but the US produces 24% of
the world's goods and services. Sure if we stopped doing that, we could use
less energy. And sure, we could be more energy efficient. No doubt

Having lived in Europe, it is pleasant but they are not nearly as well off
as we are in the US. The Eurozone produces 16,620,000 million dollars of GDP
for a population of 728 million. The US produces 13,840,000 with a
population of 301 million. That works out to a greater efficiency per person
in wealth creation than Europe. Almost double. Europe produces $23,000 per
person and the US produces $46,000 per person.

So, Chu's comment about wealth seems to fail in the light of GDP numbers.
Now, the question of whether we need all that wealth is a moral question,
not a mathematical question. The Tibetan nomads I met seemed happy and
they have none of the stuff I have. But that isn't relevant to the question
of who has more wealth.

Europe also only gets about 1/5 the GDP per tonne of oil equivalent that the
US gets. There may be some problems with the European number as I can only
get energy use for Europe with Russia and the GDP may only be for the EU. I
will look further into this tonight. Gotta go to work.

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Rich Blinne [mailto:rich.blinne@gmail.com]
> Sent: Wednesday, December 10, 2008 10:30 PM
> To: gordon brown; Randy Isaac; John Burgeson (ASA member)
> Cc: asa; Glenn Morton
> Subject: Re: [asa] $4 gas is here to stay (fwd)
>
>
> On Dec 9, 2008, at 8:25 PM, Glenn Morton wrote:
>
>>
>> As the economy in the future has, each day, less and less energy
>> with which
>> to overcome the friction of getting that hammer to market,, fewer
>> hammers
>> will be moved. And fewer hammers will be forged, as that requires
>> energy as
>> well. As I said in my 2005 ASA talk on energy at Messiah
>> College,
>> when peak oil happens it will mark the first time in 10,000 years
> that
>> mankind has had less energy tomorrow than he had today. It will be a
>> historic moment. Right now, July 2008 is the peak of oil
>> production, but
>> that figure is preliminary and most likely will be revised downward
>> (May
>> 2008, which was the previous 'peak' was revised downward. If July
>> 2008 gets
>> revised downward, then May 2005 was the peak of world crude oil
>> production!
>> As the energy available to the world economy becomes less and less,
>> eventually we will reach a point where the economy moves from the
>> status of
>> a dieter, to the status as an anorexic. I don't know what level of
>> energy
>> use that is, but as far as I can see it is coming
>>
>>
>
> The next Secretary of Energy addresses this myth that the wealth of a
> country is proportional to the energy it uses.
>
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfLaQUD86Mw
>
> Look starting at 2:00 through 4:11 where Dr. Steven Chu concludes,
> "Miraculously the manufacturers had to assign the problem to the
> engineers instead of the lobbyists."
>
> Rich Blinne
> Member ASA

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Received on Thu, 11 Dec 2008 08:56:18 -0700 (MST)

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