Re: [asa] Question on global warming

From: Rich Blinne <rich.blinne@gmail.com>
Date: Tue Apr 08 2008 - 20:10:01 EDT

Please note I conflated some "fellow travelers". The Marshall Institute
formed in 1984 is where I got the specific examples from. Robert Jastrow,
the founder, died in February. What the Marshall Institute has in common
with the Heartland Institute and the Constitution Party is a common interest
against government regulation. Because of this they all are watermelon
averse (green on the outside, red on the inside). The Marshall Institute
started out as an advocacy group for SDI. When the Cold War ended they
opposed anything that looked "red" which included anti-tobacco and
environmentalist groups. The attacks were often couched in very personal
terms much like the quote you gave. One interesting change in tactics is the
essay Rober Pielke had in Nature last week. We went from "no problem" to
"intractible problem" in one fell swoop. Again, the answer is no government
regulation and unrestrained c apitalism. It's always that regardless of the
situation. How convenient.

On Tue, Apr 8, 2008 at 2:45 PM, j burg <hossradbourne@gmail.com> wrote:

> Thanks, Rich. You have again added to my education.
>
> I knew the attack on Pobertson came from a far right group -- I
> thought it was the Heartland Institute who also endorses Singer's
> views.
>
> The take I get from Dyson is the computer modelling is too unreliable
> to pay atttention to at this time. The take I get from you (and the
> IPCC) is that the computer modelling may be imprecise, but none the
> less it is reliable enough to take very seriously.
>
> So the issue seems to come down to the usefulness of computer models.
>
> Burgy
>
> On 4/8/08, Rich Blinne <rich.blinne@gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> >
> > On Tue, Apr 8, 2008 at 7:53 AM, j burg <hossradbourne@gmail.com> wrote:
> > >
> > > This email above was sent with a comment by a lurker, who says that
> > > Freeman Dyson (whom I admire and respect) is one of "200 prominent
> > > scientists" who have signed a petition against global warming "fix"
> > > policies..
> > >
> > > As far as I know the IPCC statement is still a consensus of climate
> > > scientists.. But I have not been keeping up with the issue very
> > > closely. Pim -- and others -- can you shed any light on the Dyson
> > > (purported) statement?
> > >
> > > I
> >
> >
> > So, what does Freeman Dyson say specifically about the so-called
> > anthropogenic global warming hoax?
> >
> > >
> > > As a result of the burning of coal and oil, the driving of cars, and
> other
> > human activities, the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is increasing at
> a
> > rate of about half a percent per year. The physical effects of carbon
> > dioxide are seen in changes of rainfall, cloudiness, wind strength, and
> > temperature, which are customarily lumped together in the misleading
> phrase
> > "global warming." This phrase is misleading because the warming caused
> by
> > the greenhouse effect of increased carbon dioxide is not evenly
> distributed.
> > [emphasis mine]
> >
> >
> > No beef with the word "anthropogenic" or "warming". His beef is with the
> > word "global" because the effects are so much more profound at high
> > latitudes -- which is an extremely uncontroversial view. In fact AGW
> theory
> > predicts such polar amplification.
> >
> > Even though Dyson is critical about the accuracy of the models for the
> > purpose of predicting climate -- particular at the local level, what
> does he
> > say about the use of global climate models to understand climate and
> > determine what's causing the current warming?
> >
> > >
> > > The bad news [concerning the inaccuracy of climate models at the local
> > level] does not mean that climate models are worthless. They are, as
> Manabe
> > said thirty years ago, essential tools for understanding climate.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > You are right about the consensus. You will note that the attack on Pat
> > Robertson comes from the Constitution Party who believes that there
> should
> > be little or no government regulation. The people who claim there is no
> > consensus also claimed there was no consensus concerning:
> >
> > 1. The link between cigarette smoking and cancer.
> > 2. The link between second hand smoke and various diseases.
> > 3. Acid rain
> > 4. CFCs and the ozone hole
> >
> > The latter two are interesting because a cap and trade regimen
> successfully
> > addressed acid rain and the allegation concerning no consensus
> concerning
> > CFCs was made two weeks before the Nobel Prize in chemistry was issued
> for
> > the connection. The Montreal convention also has successfully reduced
> the
> > size of the ozone hole and the effect of CFCs as a greenhouse gas.
> > Rich Blinne, Member ASA
> >
>

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Received on Tue Apr 8 20:11:25 2008

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