Re: [asa] Seasonal Climate Predictions

From: PvM <pvm.pandas@gmail.com>
Date: Mon Aug 13 2007 - 12:23:11 EDT

On 8/13/07, Janice Matchett <janmatch@earthlink.net> wrote:
>
> At 12:55 PM 8/11/2007, Dave Wallace wrote:
>
>
> For the area of Eastern Ontario where we have spent the summer, Environment
> Canada predicted that we would experience a hot and dry summer. Instead the
> summer has been wet and cool. Given the state of climate modeling what
> should one expect in terms of climate predictions? It would seem to me that
> the models should be able to predict accurately the climate for a season
> some time during the preceding season and for a land mass say the size of a
> small state like Texas. Obviously factors like volcanoes... tend to be
> unpredictable.
> Maybe the problem is that the computer runs are not being made to allow
> accurate near in climate predictions due to lack of computer time or some
> such. If computer time is the issue then maybe the climate change deniers
> (that is you Janice) should be challenged to make their computers available
> to something like climate prediction net.
> The cynical suggestion I hear being talked about is that the farmers
> almanac is more accurate than the climate models. ~ Dave W (CSCA)
>
> @ "...maybe the climate change deniers (that is you Janice) .." ~ Dave W
> 12:55 PM 8/11/2007
>
> "Doublethink" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doublethink
> According to Orwell's novel, 1984, doublethink is:

Let's put it in words Janice might understand: Global warming deniers
who deny that there is a significant human component to the recent
trend in global temperatures and who use misleading or misunderstood
data and arguments to further their "case" and blow them out of
proportion while ignoring the vaste amounts of evidences.

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Received on Mon Aug 13 12:23:31 2007

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