Re: [asa] Seasonal Climate Predictions

From: Janice Matchett <janmatch@earthlink.net>
Date: Mon Aug 13 2007 - 12:16:23 EDT

At 12:55 PM 8/11/2007, Dave Wallace wrote:

>For the area of Eastern Ontario where we have
>spent the summer, Environment Canada predicted
>that we would experience a hot and dry
>summer. Instead the summer has been wet and
>cool. Given the state of climate modeling what
>should one expect in terms of climate
>predictions? It would seem to me that the models
>should be able to predict accurately the climate
>for a season some time during the preceding
>season and for a land mass say the size of a
>small state like Texas. Obviously factors like
>volcanoes... tend to be unpredictable.
>Maybe the problem is that the computer runs are
>not being made to allow accurate near in climate
>predictions due to lack of computer time or some
>such. If computer time is the issue then maybe
>the climate change deniers (that is you Janice)
>should be challenged to make their computers
>available to something like climate prediction net.
>The cynical suggestion I hear being talked about
>is that the farmers almanac is more accurate
>than the climate models. ~ Dave W (CSCA)

@ "...maybe the climate change deniers (that is
you Janice) .." ~ Dave W 12:55 PM 8/11/2007

"Doublethink"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doublethink
According to Orwell's novel, 1984, doublethink is:

“ The power of holding two contradictory beliefs
in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting both
of them. ... To tell deliberate lies while
genuinely believing in them, to forget any fact
that has become inconvenient, and then, when it
becomes necessary again, to draw it back from
oblivion for just so long as it is needed, to
deny the existence of objective reality and all
the while to take account of the reality which
one denies­all this is indispensably necessary.
Even in using the word doublethink it is
necessary to exercise doublethink. For by using
the word one admits that one is tampering with
reality; by a fresh act of doublethink one erases
this knowledge; and so on indefinitely, with the
lie always one leap ahead of the truth. ”

Another quote from the novel, when Winston starts
to think about doublethink as he exercises:

“ His mind slid away into the labyrinthine world
of doublethink. To know and not to know, to be
conscious of complete truthfulness while telling
carefully-constructed lies, to hold
simultaneously two opinions which cancelled out,
knowing them to be contradictory and believing in
both of them; to use logic against logic, to
repudiate morality while laying claim to it,
...to forget whatever it was necessary to forget,
then to draw it back at the moment when it was
needed, and then promptly to forget it again: and
above all, to apply the same process to the
process itself. That was the ultimate subtlety:
consciously to induce unconsciousness, and then,
once again, to become unconscious of the act of
hypnosis you had just performed. Even to
understand the word 'doublethink' involved using doublethink”

...Newspeak itself incorporated doublethink, as
it contained many words that create assumed
associations between contradictory meanings. That
is especially true of words of fundamental
importance, such as good/evil, right/wrong,
truth/falsehood, and justice/injustice.

Doublethink was a form of trained, wilful
blindness to contradictions in a system of
beliefs. Doublethink differed from ordinary
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki//wiki/Hypocrisy>hypocrisy
in that the person who was "doublethinking" had
to deliberately forget the contradiction between
his two opposing beliefs ­ and then deliberately
forget the fact that he had forgotten it. He then
had to forget the forgetting of the forgetting,
and so on; this process of intentional
forgetting, once begun, continued indefinitely.
In the book's notes, Orwell describes this
endless process as a kind of "controlled insanity". ..."

Here are some more examples of doublethink and doublespeak on this forum:

"What will the global warming deniers have to say
about ..." ~ Pim 11:59 AM 7/30/2007

@ Who are these "deniers" you're talking about
who think that the earth hasn't alternated down
through its history between warming and cooling
to varying degrees? Please name them. ~
Janice Sun, 05 Aug 2007 22:36:31 -0400

*
"Yet, even within our ranks, there are no doubt
some who regard global warming as "junk science." ~ Burgy 10:13 AM 2/14/2006

@ I highly doubt whether anyone - outside an
insane asylum or a cave - would regard "global
warming" (or "global cooling" ) as "junk
science". Since global warming has been going
on since God created the sun - and long before he
created man - "global warming" (as well as
"global cooling") is ordained by God. ~ Janice Tue, 14 Feb 2006 10:59

"..outside the parallel universe in which some
appear to live - never have I ever said that I
don't believe there is "global warming". In
actual fact, I have stated the exact opposite
many times, one of which was exactly one year
ago, here: Tue, 14 Feb 2006
10:59:34
<http://www.calvin.edu/archive/asa/200602/0198.html%A0>http://www.calvin.edu/archive/asa/200602/0198.html
and another just a couple of months ago, here:
Mon Dec 04 2006 - 13:54:05
EST
<http://www.calvin.edu/archive/asa/200612/0019.html>http://www.calvin.edu/archive/asa/200612/0019.html
~ Janice

"Global Warming" is the red herring you drag
across the trail -- either in actual ignorance --
or in the hope that most people are careless
readers and will go sniffing off in the
particular direction you want them to go. So once
more I will bring you back to the subject of all
of my posts on the subject, ie: "Human-induced
global warming / global cooling", etc." ~ Janice
Wed, 14 Feb 2007 13:22:03 -0500 in response to Rich Blinne and Pim Van Meurs.

~ Janice .... Climate changes - it always has and it always will.

To unsubscribe, send a message to majordomo@calvin.edu with
"unsubscribe asa" (no quotes) as the body of the message.
Received on Mon Aug 13 12:17:01 2007

This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.8 : Mon Aug 13 2007 - 12:17:01 EDT