Re: [asa] Seasonal Climate Predictions

From: Dave Wallace <wdwllace@sympatico.ca>
Date: Sun Aug 12 2007 - 05:49:41 EDT

> I believe this has been discussed before but climate and regional
> weather are very different concepts. Weather forecasts beyond a few
> days quickly become unreliable.
>
> http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html#verification
>
> These 'forecasts' are based on climatology and as they say, climate is
> not the weather. Lot's of cool graphics and tools to play with. Skill
> level needs to be above 45% for the 'prediction' to have any value.
> YMMV of course.
>

Yes I have seen those pages before and I tend to think they show
incompetence. I understand that weather forecasts beyond a few days
become unreliable and so on! What I am asking is what is the shortest
period of time and the smallest area of land for which the average of
the weather becomes climate and we should expect reasonably accurate
projections to validate the models? Trying to look at the IPCC info
over a dial up connection is close to impossible.

Dave W (CSCA)

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Received on Sun Aug 12 05:57:49 2007

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