Re: [asa] Seasonal Climate Predictions

From: PvM <pvm.pandas@gmail.com>
Date: Sat Aug 11 2007 - 17:43:40 EDT

I believe this has been discussed before but climate and regional
weather are very different concepts. Weather forecasts beyond a few
days quickly become unreliable.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html#verification

These 'forecasts' are based on climatology and as they say, climate is
not the weather. Lot's of cool graphics and tools to play with. Skill
level needs to be above 45% for the 'prediction' to have any value.
YMMV of course.

On 8/11/07, Dave Wallace <wdwllace@sympatico.ca> wrote:
> For the area of Eastern Ontario where we have spent the summer,
> Environment Canada predicted that we would experience a hot and dry
> summer. Instead the summer has been wet and cool. Given the state of
> climate modeling what should one expect in terms of climate predictions?
>
>
> It would seem to me that the models should be able to predict accurately
> the climate for a season some time during the preceding season and for a
> land mass say the size of a small state like Texas. Obviously factors
> like volcanoes... tend to be unpredictable.
>
> Maybe the problem is that the computer runs are not being made to allow
> accurate near in climate predictions due to lack of computer time or
> some such. If computer time is the issue then maybe the climate change
> deniers (that is you Janice) should be challenged to make their
> computers available to something like climate prediction net.
>
> The cynical suggestion I hear being talked about is that the farmers
> almanac is more accurate than the climate models.
>
> Dave W (CSCA)
>
>
>
>
>
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Received on Sat Aug 11 17:52:32 2007

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