[asa] Seasonal Climate Predictions

From: Dave Wallace <wdwllace@sympatico.ca>
Date: Sat Aug 11 2007 - 12:55:14 EDT

For the area of Eastern Ontario where we have spent the summer,
Environment Canada predicted that we would experience a hot and dry
summer. Instead the summer has been wet and cool. Given the state of
climate modeling what should one expect in terms of climate predictions?

It would seem to me that the models should be able to predict accurately
the climate for a season some time during the preceding season and for a
land mass say the size of a small state like Texas. Obviously factors
like volcanoes... tend to be unpredictable.

Maybe the problem is that the computer runs are not being made to allow
accurate near in climate predictions due to lack of computer time or
some such. If computer time is the issue then maybe the climate change
deniers (that is you Janice) should be challenged to make their
computers available to something like climate prediction net.

The cynical suggestion I hear being talked about is that the farmers
almanac is more accurate than the climate models.

Dave W (CSCA)

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Received on Sat Aug 11 13:28:00 2007

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