Re: [asa] Southern Ocean Loaded With Carbon Dioxide

From: Janice Matchett <janmatch@earthlink.net>
Date: Sat May 19 2007 - 18:56:38 EDT

At 06:48 PM 5/19/2007, PvM wrote:
>Understanding the issues involved may help
>resolve the apparent conflicts. Computer models
>showed that the southern oceans could absorb CO2
>however the models rely in the data to
>accurately predict. Seems that the southern
>oceans have already absorbed CO2 to a higher level than initially realized.
>The results show that the issue of global
>warming is even more dire than expected.
>
><quote>Increased winds over the last
>half-century are to blame for the change, Le
>Quere said. These winds blend the carbon dioxide throughout
>the Southern Ocean, mixing the naturally
>occurring carbon that usually stays deep down
>with the human-caused carbon. </quote>
>
>I'll read the two papers and report back on full
>details. Science is seldomly learned from newspapers and press releases. ~ Pim

@@ Oh my...

Where to start? Earlier this month we had
announcement of a previously unknown vortex in
the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, dramatically
increasing mixing between surface and deep water
-- as yet it is unknown whether this might
increase or decrease absorption of atmospheric
carbon dioxide but it certainly shows models do
not represent the real world. If the case is one
of carbon being returned to atmosphere faster
than previously estimated then the Southern Ocean
never was absorbing the amount thought (the
"missing" carbon is going somewhere as yet
undetermined) or, equally likely, this mechanism
enhances the ability of the Southern Ocean to
transport carbon to deep ocean layers -- so the
Southern Ocean is either less important for
atmospheric absorption or it's capable of greater
absorption than previously estimated. Both these
possibilities indicate less of a "problem" than had been thought.

Let's assume, for a moment, that the above
hand-wringer is accurate and the Great Southern
Ocean is saturating, coming to the end of its
atmospheric carbon absorbing ways. Implied then
is that fears of accelerating oceanic
acidification are unfounded if the oceans absorb
progressively less carbon from the atmosphere as
they "saturate" and, contrary to recent fears,
corals and shellfish are quite safe, well able to
build their homes as they have for hundreds of
millions of years, through vastly higher
atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and the current
desperately low ones. Again, a claimed "problem"
appears less than previously proposed.

One thing guaranteed to be endlessly reiterated
will be the concept of 'positive feedback', the
'magnifier' required to make the negligible
empirically measured warming from increased
atmospheric carbon dioxide into a potential
problem. Usually this takes the form of
atmospheric water vapor increase as both
evaporation increases and the atmosphere warms
(and can thus hold more water vapor), resulting
in an increase in the most prolific and important
of greenhouse gases and net greenhouse effect but
it can be and is also presented as 'loss of
sinks' (absorption capacity) leading to more
rapid increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide
leading to increase in greenhouse effect. No one
actually knows the net sign of Earth's total
greenhouse feedback mechanisms but the global
warming industry always uses positive factors
with a median estimate of 2.5 (this is how they
make a maximum estimate of +1.2 K for a doubling
of pre-IR CO2 into a 'median estimate' of +3.0
K). Models also use absurdly high 'climate
sensitivity factors' in the range of 0.75 0.25
K (0.5-1.0 K) per Watt per meter squared change
in forcing although empirical measure tells us
these factors are 5-10 times too large. In fact
there's no real need to get excited about models
and hypothetical 'positive feedback' when we can
simply observe what the planet does in response
to an unmasked warming event and the heating and
cooling cycle it undergoes each and every year.
The bottom line is that the warming effect of
increased carbon dioxide is small and declining.

We never cease to be amazed at the media's
dutiful regurgitation of contradictory, even
mutually exclusive fear-mongering, all allegedly
caused by anthropogenic global warming. Are they
so myopic they do not realize they publish
mutually exclusive positions drawn from the same
trivial changes observed? Or do they just not
care and will publish anything demonstrating the
unworthiness of humans in their desperate
feelings of guilt as parasitic entities living to
the detriment of the Great Earth Mother/Gaia/Tree Spirit thingy?

The only things we are moderately well-convinced
of are that the planet is not currently as cool
as it was in the Little Ice Age, atmospheric
carbon dioxide levels are rising as they do after
every cool period and humans are probably helping
this to occur. Upon this an entire disaster industry is built. Go figure!

http://www.junkscience.com/

Southern Ocean Nears CO2 Saturation Point (more global warming hyper-alarmism)
IPS ^ | May 19, 2007 | Stephen Leahy
Posted on 05/19/2007 9:53:31 AM EDT by GodGunsGuts
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1836276/posts?page=1#1

~ Janice ...
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/search?m=any;o=score;s=southern%20ocean

On 5/19/07, Janice Matchett <janmatch@earthlink.net> wrote:

>> At 11:38 AM 5/19/2007, philtill@aol.com wrote:
>>
>>Southern Ocean Loaded With Carbon Dioxide
>>
>>http://news.aol.com/topnews/articles/_a/southern-ocean-loaded-with-carbon/20070518204409990001?ncid=NWS00010000000001
>> @ Toooo funny! Looks like they had to come up with some more computer
>>models FAST in order to reverse what other computer models predicted 6
>>months ago.
>>
>> ~ Janice :)
>>
>> Southern Ocean Could Slow Global Warming
>> Science Daily ^ | 12-5-2006 | University Of Arizona
>> Posted on 12/05/2006 6:41:48 PM EST by blam
>> http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1748976/posts
>>
>> The Southern Ocean may slow the rate of global warming by absorbing
>>significantly more heat and carbon dioxide than previously thought,
>>according to new research.
>>
>> ....The new finding surprised the scientists, said lead researcher Joellen
>>L. Russell. "We think it will slow global warming. It won't reverse or stop
>>it, but it will slow the rate of increase."
>>
>> The new model Russell and her colleagues developed provides a realistic
>>simulation of the Southern Hemisphere westerlies and Southern Ocean
>>circulation.
>>
>> Previous climate models did not have the winds properly located. In
>>simulations of present-day climate, those models distorted the ocean's
>>response to future increases in greenhouse gases. ..
>>
>> The current set of computer models that scientists use to predict future
>>climate differ in the degree to which heat is sequestered by the Southern
>>Ocean. The models vary in how they represent the behavior of the Southern
>>Hemisphere Westerlies and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the largest
>>current on the planet.
>>
>> Stouffer said, "The poleward intensification of the westerlies will allow
>>the ocean to remove additional heat and anthropogenic carbon dioxide from
>>the atmosphere. Thus, the deep ocean has the potential to slow the
>>atmospheric warming through the increased storage of heat and carbon." ..."
>>
>>
>>

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Received on Sat May 19 18:56:47 2007

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