[asa] Probability of Anthropic cause for Global Climate Warming

From: Dave Wallace <wdwllace@sympatico.ca>
Date: Fri Mar 23 2007 - 17:19:26 EDT


For the purpose of this discussion eliminate any none human causes of
global warming/cooling eg wobble in earths orbit, variation of the sun's
activity, huge volcanoes and so on.

IPCC "Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis
Summary for Policymakers" Figure SPM-5, shows temperature rise given
different scenarios with no effects from efforts like Kyoto to reduce
the release of green house gases. I would certainly agree that the
Kyoto protocols seem highly politicized and somewhat less than wise.
Which scenario to choose also would appear to be subject to some
discussion. However, lets assume that scenario B1 is what occurs
between now and 2100 ie that greenhouse gas rises as per that scenario.
  What probability would you assign that the model and the physics yield
correct predictions and that by 2100 global mean temperature would rise
by 1.8degree C (ie 3.2F), plus or minus the (appx .4C) error bands shown
on the graph?

Dave W

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Received on Fri Mar 23 17:19:52 2007

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