Re: [asa] Counteri-ntuitive Results of AR4 SPM on Sea Level Rise

From: Bill Hamilton <>
Date: Sun Feb 04 2007 - 17:09:35 EST

--- Rich Blinne <> wrote:

> A while back Janice crowed about how the sea level rises were lower in AR4
> than TAR. The official report shows the same but not for the reasons Janice
> thinks. The highest number is lower because things are worse. Say what??!!??
> Yes, you heard me right. It has to do with the discussion about models
> that Dr. Hamilton and I had. The ice dynamics models were found to be
> wanting because they underpredicted ice melt and were dropped from AR4. It's
> those pesky positive feedbacks that cause chaos which runs roughshod through
> our precious computer models. In short, the effects are worse than currently
> predicted -- we just don't know how much worse.

OK. So the models underestimated the effects of ice melt. I would think that
ice melt would be so crucially important that no simulation should see the
light of day without extensive validation for this. How many additional
"omissions" are they, and in which direction are they likely to bias the results?

Bill Hamilton
William E. Hamilton, Jr., Ph.D.
248.652.4148 (home) 248.821.8156 (mobile)
"...If God is for us, who is against us?" Rom 8:31

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Received on Sun Feb 4 17:10:13 2007

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