Re: [asa] What's so hot about fickle science?

From: Janice Matchett <janmatch@earthlink.net>
Date: Sun Feb 04 2007 - 15:16:40 EST

At 02:11 PM 2/4/2007, PIM wrote:
>... we see the following quote: <quote> If
>"global warming" is real and if man is
>responsible, why then do so many "experts" need
>to rely on obviously fraudulent data? The
>famous "hockey stick" graph showed the planet's
>climate history as basically one long bungalow
>with the Empire State Building tacked on the end. Completely false. </quote>
>
>1. No fraudulent data

@ False And "fraudulent" data is only the tip of
the iceberg of the flawed data that is being relied upon. (see below)

>2. No sole reliance on the hockey stick data ~ Pim

@ Nor was there a claim of "sole reliance" on it,
since other examples (out of many more that could
have been noted) were given, as you well know. Tsk, tsk, tsk.

"I don't trust ANYBODY's predictions on sea
level. There are two many free variables most
specifically how much anthropogenic CO2 there is
going to be. The climate sensitivity numbers from
the 2001 report have been confirmed by more
recent research. We don't know how successful or
unsuccessful we will be at controlling CO2
emissions or external factors such as possibly
running out oil might have. We are discovering
different negative (and positive!) feedback
mechanisms that also affect the CO2 levels. Since
2001 we have better models where given the right
inputs we can predict the effects but it is still
GIGO (garbage in garbage out) because we still do
not have accurate prediction of CO2 levels and
probably never will." ~ Rich Blinne Mon, 11 Dec 2006 11:49:39 -0700

>3. the hockey stick data, still seems
>correct I have rebutted these flawed arguments
>about the hockey stick in the past, so it is
>regrettable to see them repeated here uncritically. ~ Pim

@ No kidding. Better tell the National Academy
of Sciences - they must have overlooked your
rebuttals. They don't believe the data "seems"
correct, they "know" it is INcorrect. :) Where
have you been for the last 7 months?

NAS REPORT REAFFIRMS ‘HOCKEY STICK’ IS BROKEN

----------
June 22, 2006

"..today’s congressionally commissioned review by
the National Academy of Sciences.. shows that Dr.
Michael Mann’s “hockey stick” study was flawed,
specifically refuting some of its most often-cited conclusions.

The National Academy of Sciences’ “Surface
Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2000
Years” noted in their summary that there were
“relatively warm conditions centered around A.D.
1000 (identified by some as the ‘Medieval Warm
Period’) and a relatively cold period (or ‘Little
Ice Age’) centered around 1700.” The hockey stick
constructed by Mann and his colleagues purported
to show temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere
remained relatively stable over 900 years, then
spiked upward in the 20th century.

“Today’s NAS report reaffirms what I have been
saying all along, that Mann's ‘hockey stick’ is
broken....Today’s report refutes Mann's prior
assertions that there was no Medieval Warm Period or Little Ice Age.”

The NAS report also stated that “substantial
uncertainties” surround Mann’s claims that the
last few decades of the 20th century were the
warmest in last 1000 years. In fact, while the
report conceded that temperature data
uncertainties increase going backward in time, it
acknowledged that “not all individual proxy
records indicate that the recent warmth is unprecedented…’

In addition, the NAS report further chastises
Mann, declaring “Even less confidence can be
placed in the original conclusions by Mann et al.
(1999) that ‘the 1990’s are likely the warmest
decade, and 1998 the warmest year, in at least a millennium ...’”

“This report shows that the planet warmed for
about 200 years prior to the industrial age, when
we were coming out of the depths of the Little
Ice Age where harsh winters froze the Thames and caused untold deaths.

“Trying to prove man-made global warming by
comparing the well-known fact that today's
temperatures are warmer than during the Little
Ice Age is akin to comparing summer to winter to
show a catastrophic temperature
trend. http://epw.senate.gov/pressitem.cfm?id=257697&party=rep

>Now remember that Lindzen served on the NAS
>committee which validated the IPCC report and the Hockey stick data. ~ Pim

@ See above. :)

~ Janice

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Received on Sun Feb 4 15:17:11 2007

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