Re: [asa] UN Downgrades Man's Impact On The Climate

From: PvM <pvm.pandas@gmail.com>
Date: Mon Dec 11 2006 - 23:35:42 EST

Tim Lambert on Deltoid presents his view on the Telegraph's article.
If Lambert is correct, then this is quite an embarrassment to those
quoting the Telegraph.

-------Begin

The Sunday Telegraph has published an inaccurate story about the
forthcoming IPCC fourth assessment report:

    In a final draft of its fourth assessment report, to be published
in February, the panel reports that the level of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere has accelerated in the past five years. It also predicts
that temperatures will rise by up to 4.5 C during the next 100 years,
bringing more frequent heat waves and storms.

The Telegraph report is obviously wrong. The IPCC report just
summarizes the scientific literature. There has not been any paper
published that would justify reducing the estimate. The reporter has
confused climate sensitivity (how much warming you eventually get from
doubling CO2), with predicted warming in 2100. In the third assessment
report the top end of the range for sensitivity was 4.5, while the top
end for warming by 2100 was 5.8. These numbers haven't changed in the
new report, all that has happened is that the reporter has mistaken
the 4.5 number for sensitivity as a new estimate for warming and
reported it as a reduction from 5.8. Naturally, all the usual folk are
spreading the bogus story across the net
(http://www.technorati.com/search/www.telegraph.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fmain.jhtml%3Fxml%3D%2Fnews%2F2006%2F12%2F10%2Fnclimate10.xml?start=10),
including, of course, Inhofe.
(http://epw.senate.gov/pressitem.cfm?party=rep&id=266803)

The depressing thing is that this has all happened before. In
September, the Australian published a story making exactly the same
error. http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2006/09/matthew_warren_continues_where.php
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Received on Mon Dec 11 23:36:28 2006

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