[asa] The lag between CO2 and temperature correlations

From: PvM <pvm.pandas@gmail.com>
Date: Thu Dec 07 2006 - 02:43:58 EST

time to correct some other common misunderstandings amongst global
warming critics.

The correlation between CO2 and temperature

Tim Lambert corrects a few red herrings in
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2006/06/an_embarrassment_to_australian.php#more

-----begin quote------
 Or this:

    Carleton University paleoclimatologist Professor Tim Patterson
testified, "There is no meaningful correlation between CO2 levels and
Earth's temperature over this [geologic] time frame. In fact, when CO2
levels were over ten times higher than they are now, about 450 million
years ago, the planet was in the depths of the absolute coldest period
in the last half billion years." Patterson asked the committee, "On
the basis of this evidence, how could anyone still believe that the
recent relatively small increase in CO2 levels would be the major
cause of the past century's modest warming?"

Well yes, over hundreds of millions of years, things like continental
drift and long term changes in the sun are more important to climate
than CO2. I'd keep that in mind if I was try to predict what the
climate would be like in 100 million years. What about over the last
400,000 years? Study the graph below.
See http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/072.htm
--------end quote-----

Which should put an end to Janice's 'worries'

----Janice wrote----
I want to see a year by year (or better) plot of CO2 concentration vs
absolute temperature and the amount of correlation between the two.
This is what the current argument amounts to, but the data are never
shown. They could even try some data time shifting in case there is a
lag between the high CO2 and the high temps. Of course if the temps
lead the CO2, well they have a lot of 'splainin' to do.
----end quote-----

The reason for Janice's confusion is explained here:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=13
and in the accompagnying paper To read more about CO2 and ice cores,
see Caillon et al., 2003, Science magazine
http://icebubbles.ucsd.edu/CaillonTermIII.pdf

See also http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/11/650000-years-of-greenhouse-gas-concentrations/

and here

http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/11/20/21248/499

Hope this clarifies

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Received on Thu Dec 7 02:44:32 2006

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