RE: Jerry Falwell -- global warming is "junk science"

From: Freeman, Louise Margaret <lfreeman@mbc.edu>
Date: Fri Feb 17 2006 - 16:24:58 EST

I doubt this will do any good, but I'll try. Your 90%-10% split is referring to two different
probabilities and is therefore meaningless.

Say I have a hundred 4-barrel revolvers. I put one bullet in each, hand them to 100 eager
volunteers, have them spin the barrel, place the gun to their temple and fire. One in four
people (25%) among my volunteers lose this game of Russian Roulette and die.

100% of the dead people had bullets in their brains, but "only" 25% of the people playing
Russian Roulette died. By your logic, I shoud therefore concude that 75% of these deaths
were attributable to something else other than their foolish behavior of volunteering to be
in my experiment. A personal genetic susceptability to bullets, perhaps?
__
Louise M. Freeman, PhD
Psychology Dept
Mary Baldwin College
Staunton, VA 24401
540-887-7326
FAX 540-887-7121

 
> The link between smoking and cancer involves a PERSONAL GENETIC
> SUSCEPTIBILITY in 90% of the cases. Only 10% of heavy smokers
> develop the disease, suggesting involvement of a personal genetic
> susceptibility.
> ..." http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2003-09/wi-nbt090203.php
Received on Fri Feb 17 16:25:35 2006

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