The death of the RTB model

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Date: Sat Feb 11 2006 - 07:56:30 EST

I would like to thank Janice for alerting me to Templeton's article.  I have added this information to my page I bought it tonight, read it and have added this to  the page referenced.


 Out- of- Africa--a dead theory

Rana and Ross depend upon the Out-of-Africa/Recent Replacement theory to be correct. If that theory is falsified, then their views also are falsified. Alan Templeton recently published "Haplotype Trees and Modern Human Origins" in the Yearbook of Physical Anthropology 2005, (48:33-59). This article examines 25 different locations in human nuclear DNA instead of mtDNA. The paper then combines the results of all these locales and proves that the Out-of-Africa theory is false. It takes multiple sites across the human genome and statistically analyses them for population expansions. Unlike mtDNA, nuclear DNA is capable of detecting population events (expansions) several million years ago. Templeton detected three major population expansions.

The first population expansion dates 1.9 million years ago (Templeton, 2005, p. 48). This event did not happen 100 kyr ago as the Out-of-Africa model would require as would the RTB Rana/Ross model. The 95% confidence limits on this expansion are .99 million years to 3.1 million years ago. In other words, there is a 95% chance that it happened prior to 1 million years ago. Three genetic systems showed this pattern (CYP1A2, Lactase and Fut2). If all humans arose only 100,000 years ago, we should not have evidence of earlier expansions in our genes. This expansion corresponds archaeologically with the expansion of H. erectus into Eurasia. If we are unrelated to them, our genes should not show this expansion.

The second population expansion dates at 0.65 million years ago (95% confidence of it happening between 390,000 and 970,000 years ago). Seven genetic regions showed this expansion. This expansion also should not be seen in human genomes if we arose from a tiny population 100,000 years ago, yet it is there. This expansion correlates to the spread of the Acheulean hand-ax culture, which originated in Africa but spread to the rest of the world (Templeton, 2005, p. 48).

The final expansion seen in our genes is the one the mtDNA illuminates. The nuclear genome dates this event at 130,000 years ago (95% confidence interval of 96,000 to 169,000 years ago). Five nuclear genomic regions showed this expansion. This is the expansion of anatomically modern man through the world (Templeton, 2005, p. 48).

Templeton then tested whether or not all the detected population expansions were simultaneous. The data indicated that there was only one chance in 1015 that the expansions happened at the same time (Templeton, 2005, p. 48). In other words, probabilities rule out that the nuclear genome of humans arose in one expansion whether that expansion happened 130,000 years ago or earlier. This is practical proof of interbreeding between all humans over the past 2 million years. If humans have NO genetic input from any of the archaic hominids, we should not see this kind of statistical pattern in the DNA.

Templeton concludes with this damning statement of the Out-of-Africa theory.

"One hypothesis about recent human evolution was the out-of-Africa replacement hypothesis, in which anatomically modern humans arose first in Africa, then expanded out-of-Africa as a new type (or even species) of humans, and drove the older 'type' of humans found on the Eurasian continent to total genetic extinction. The early work on mtDNA haplotype trees was often presented as proof of this hypothesis, but there was no effort to test the replacement hypothesis vs. alternatives with the mtDNA (Templeton, 1994). With multilocus data sets, the hypothesis of total replacement can be tested, and it is strongly rejected (P< 10-17). Thus, the hypothesis of total replacement can no longer be regarded as tenable." (Templeton, 2005, p. 56)

If this theory is no longer tenable, then neither is the RTB model, as Rana and Ross proclaim.

Received on Sat Feb 11 07:56:40 2006

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