Re: Kuwait's biggest field starts to run out of oil

From: Michael Roberts <>
Date: Tue Nov 15 2005 - 13:19:45 EST

Energy resources are most definitely part of this forum as are the problems
of pollution

----- Original Message -----
From: "Tjalle T Vandergraaf" <>
To: <>; "'Glenn Morton'" <>;
Sent: Tuesday, November 15, 2005 5:32 PM
Subject: RE: Kuwait's biggest field starts to run out of oil

> Good point. I, too, enjoy Glenn's contributions and I certainly hope that
> "energy resources" is an important enough topic to remain acceptable in
> this
> forum. As Christians, we are called to be stewards of the earth and, to
> be
> good stewards, this requires that we have some idea of the extent of our
> resources. The availability of energy resources, or lack thereof, colours
> a
> lot of our applied research and, as hopefully the 2006 ASA conference will
> show, allows us to show how we embed our "Christian values in science and
> technology."
> As to a comparison with the recent discussion on the Crusades, I have some
> difficulty putting history in the "science category" unless some of the
> scientific aspects of the Crusades are discussed. Don't know if there are
> any, as the whole affair appeared to be pretty low-tech.
> Chuck Vandergraaf
> -----Original Message-----
> From: [] On
> Behalf Of
> Sent: Tuesday, November 15, 2005 8:32 AM
> To: Glenn Morton;
> Subject: Re: Kuwait's biggest field starts to run out of oil
> I have a question about this forum and this is not a
> veiled complaint. I am sincerely seeking clarification.
> I appreciate posts from Glenn on this issue.
> But last week, or maybe the week before, there were
> complaints about off topic posts from Janice regarding the
> history of the Crusades.
> So I am looking for some clarification on what is
> considered on topic, and what isnt for this forum.
> It may very well be the direction a thread takes instead
> of the topic itself that makes it inappropriate, and I
> agree that in some cases threads need to be edited to
> remain on topic, but personally I am more in favor of
> broader acceptance of subject matter, than narrower.
> On Tue, 15 Nov 2005 03:23:18 -0800 (PST)
> Glenn Morton <> wrote:
>> I fear that Kenneth Deffeyes, author of Hubbert's
>>Peak, may be right. Last Fall, I met him at the Society
>>of Petroleum Engineers conference. I told him I had seen
>>him quoted as believing that peak oil would occur
>>Thanksgiving 2005. I then told him that I didn't
>>beleieve anyone could pick it that closely. He laughed,
>>said it would be Thanksgiving this year plus or minus 3
>>weeks. I think I reported this last year. But then he
>>grew serious and said he didn't think it would be much
>>past the middle of 2006 when Peak oil occurs. Given the
>>news I was sent today, I fear that Thanksgiving may
>>indeed be peak oil. Of the four largest fields in the
>>world, all of them are now in decline. They produce 10%
>>of the world's oil. I don't see how they can be replaced
>>given the industries inability to find oil in sufficient
>> If this is the time of peak oil, heaven help us all.
>>The freind that sent this link to me said, "You are
>>entering the depletion zone, please to not adjust your
>>television set."
>> Burgan is the 2nd largest by reserves, 3rd largest by
>>daily production--Cantarell is the 2nd largest by daily
>>production and it has been announced that it will begin
>>its decline next year (although it is already off peak
>> It was an incredible revelation last week that the
>>second largest oil field in the world is exhausted and
>>past its peak output. Yet that is what the Kuwait Oil
>>Company revealed about its Burgan field.
>> Kuwait: Saturday, November 12 - 2005 at 08:46
>> The peak output of the Burgan oil field will now be
>>around 1.7 million barrels per day, and not the two
>>million barrels per day forecast for the rest of the
>>field's 30 to 40 years of life, Chairman Farouk Al Zanki
>>told Bloomberg.
>> He said that engineers had tried to maintain 1.9 million
>>barrels per day but that 1.7 million is the optimum rate.
>>Kuwait will now spend some $3 million a year for the next
>>year to boost output and exports from other fields.
>> However, it is surely a landmark moment when the world's
>>second largest oil field begins to run dry. For Burgan
>>has been pumping oil for almost 60 years and accounts for
>>more than half of Kuwait's proven oil reserves. This is
>>also not what forecasters are currently assuming.
>>Forecasts wrong
>> Last week the International Energy Agency's report said
>>output from the Greater Burgan area will be 1.64 million
>>barrels a day in 2020 and 1.53 million barrels per day in
>>2030. Is this now a realistic scenario?
>> The news about the Burgan oil field also lends credence
>>to the controversial opinions of investment banker and
>>geologist Matthew Simmons. His book 'Twilight in the
>>Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy'
>>claims that the ageing Saudi oil filed also face serious
>>production falls.
>> The implications for the global economy are indeed
>>serious. If the world oil supply begins to run dry then
>>the upward pressure on oil prices will be inexorable. For
>>the oil producers this will come as a compensation for
>>declining output, and cushion them against an economic
>> However, the oil consumers then face a major energy
>>crisis. Industrialized economies are still far too
>>dependent on oil. And the pricing mechanism of declining
>>oil reserves will press them into further diversification
>>of energy supplies, particularly nuclear, wind and solar
>> Geological facts
>> All this was foreshadowed in the energy crisis of the
>>late 1970s when a serious inflection in oil supply by the
>>year 2000 was clearly forecast. How ironic that those
>>earlier forecasts now look correct, while more modern and
>>recent forecasts begin to look over optimistic and
>>out-of-date with geological reality.
>> Nobody can change the geology, and forces of nature that
>>laid down reserves of oil and gas over millions and
>>millions of years. Could it be that we have been blinded
>>by technological advances into thinking that there is
>>some way to beat nature?
>> The natural world has an uncanny ability to hit back at
>>the arrogance of man, and perhaps a reassessment of
>>reality at this point is called for, rather than a
>>reliance on oil statistics that may owe more to political
>>maneuvering than geological facts.
>> glenn
>> ---------------------------------
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Received on Tue Nov 15 13:28:04 2005

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