Re: Matthew Simmons on Oil

From: Al Koop <koopa@gvsu.edu>
Date: Thu Aug 25 2005 - 22:27:21 EDT

Janice,

You listed a lot of different articles that are critical of the Peak Oil concept. I have read hundreds of them before and also looked at some of your references. I have not found any of these arguments very compelling --some are just wrong in my opinion, some are irrelevant and some are poor. I really don't want to spend time trying to find a good one, but I am willing to consider any good ones that are out there. Tell me, of all of the arguments among the numerous references you gave us, which specific one out of all of these do you find the most compelling. I will take a look at it and give you my thoughts.

Al

>>> janice matchett <janmatch@earthlink.net> 08/23/05 2:11 PM >>>
At 02:14 PM 8/21/2005, Glenn Morton wrote:
>I read his 400 book on the airplane on the way back to Beijing about a
>week ago. I am more depressed than ever. I learned a few things about the
>fields that the Saudis claim are going to replace the oil Ghawar doesn't
>produce. They are fields which have already produced and were
>abandoned. Also the southern part of Ghawar has a 13 millidarcy
>reservoir. Usually we call such reservoir a dry hole.
>
>I am currently reading The Long Emergency. It is really depressing so I
>am going to stop reading it.
>
>Al Koop <koopa@gvsu.edu> wrote:
>http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/Simmons.html

### Half the stock market (reflecting the world) is made up of negative,
fear/pessimism-driven Bears and the other half is made up of positive,
courage/optimism-driven Bulls.

Into which perspective / worldview do you think you would fall?

Fear sells (to the glass is half-empty, doom and gloom Bears). And there
are no better Chicken-Little fear-mongerers than the "Perfect Storm" stock
market Bears at financialsense.com

Reality:

We haven't even begun to tap into some of the huge deep oil well reserves.
We have more oil reserves today than ever
before. <http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/5oilreservehistory.html>Oil
Reserve History http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/5oilreservehistory.html

FACT: Oil bubbles up freely through fissures in the bottom of the ocean
Google Results 1 - 10 of about 9,150 for
<http://www.google.com//url?sa=X&oi=dict&q=http://www.answers.com/oil%26r%3D67>oil
<http://www.google.com//url?sa=X&oi=dict&q=http://www.answers.com/bubbles%26r%3D67>bubbles
<http://www.google.com//url?sa=X&oi=dict&q=http://www.answers.com/up%26r%3D67>up
<http://www.google.com//url?sa=X&oi=dict&q=http://www.answers.com/from%26r%3D67>from
<http://www.google.com//url?sa=X&oi=dict&q=http://www.answers.com/fissures%26r%3D67>fissures
in the
<http://www.google.com//url?sa=X&oi=dict&q=http://www.answers.com/ocean%26r%3D67>ocean.
(0.27 seconds
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&c2coff=1&q=oil+bubbles+up+from+fissures+in+the+ocean&spell=1

August 23, 2005 An Oil "Crisis"? By
<http://www.creators.com/opinion_writetheauthor.cfm?pg=write&columnsname=tso>Thomas
Sowell<http://www.creators.com/opinion_writetheauthor.cfm?pg=write&columnsname=tso>

http://realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/com-8_23_05_TS.html

8-23-05 <http://www.dailybreeze.com/opinion/articles/1791282.html>Oil
prices and the Rule of
Bigness
<http://www.naplesnews.com/npdn/pe_columnists/article/0,2071,NPDN_14960_4021955,00.html>James
K.
Glassman<http://www.naplesnews.com/npdn/pe_columnists/article/0,2071,NPDN_14960_4021955,00.html>:

Daily Breeze http://www.dailybreeze.com/opinion/articles/1791282.html

8-23-05 On the Move in the Oil, Gas, and Petrochemical Market, Washington
Group International Establishes Its Oil & Gas Headquarters in Houston The
Company Launches Hiring of Hundreds of Oil and Gas Professionals
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=70435&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=743745&highlight=

The Bottomless Well: No Need To Curb Energy Consumption
by <http://capmag.com/author.asp?name=17>James K. Glassman (May 19,
2005) http://capmag.com/article.asp?ID=4235

Ignorance on Energy Matters Is Profound
By
<http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.22321//scholars/filter.all,scholarID.21/scholar.asp>James
K. Glassman Posted: Monday, April 18, 2005
http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.22321/pub_detail.asp

4/28/05 The Economist: "A Bottomless Beer Mug: Why the World is not
Running Out of Oil." Excerpt:

"Peter O'Dell of Rotterdam's Erasmus University points out that since 1971,
over 1500 billion barrels of oil have been added to our worldwide reserves.
Over the same 35-year period, under 800 billion barrels were consumed. One
can argue for a world which has been running into oil rather than running
out of it. What makes the estimates go up continuously is a combination of
economics and innovation. The IEA explains the process this way. Reserves
are constantly revised in line with new discoveries, changes in prices, and
technological advances. These revisions invariably add to the reserve base.
A few decades ago the average oil recovery rate from reservoirs was 20%.
Thanks to remarkable advances in technology this has risen to about 35%
today."

The New Age of Discovery.

"But there is a more practical fallacy embedded in the gloomy forecast,
too. 'I challenge the idea that the era of discovery is over in oil,' says
one expert. Thanks to the Cold War and other political constraints on
western investment, much of the world has yet to be explored with the aid
of the latest technologies. Most of the oil still undiscovered thanks to
the Cold War and other political constraints on western investment, called
environmentalism. New word for political constraints on western investment,
environmentalism. Already, the industry, (the oil industry), is exploring
underwater at depths that were unimaginable a decade or two ago. In the
Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere, oil rigs now float atop 3,000 meters, or
10,000 feet of water. These marvels of engineering [capitalism] are stuffed
with the latest in robotics, electronic sensors, and satellite equipment
using fancy multilateral wells that twist and turn in all directions, they
can hit giant underwater oil pockets miles away from the rigs." ...."

Lots more here:
<http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1396154/posts>There's No Oil
Shortage May 3, 2005
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1396154/posts

Oil, Oil Everywhere
The Wall Street Journal Opinion Journal ^ | Sunday, January 30, 2005 12:01
a.m. EST | PETER HUBER AND MARK MILLS Posted on 01/30/2005 10:24:37 AM CST
by Woodworker
<http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1331914/posts>http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1331914/posts

Also, another idea:

Anything into Oil (solution to dependence on foregn oil?)
DISCOVER Vol. 24 No. 5 ^ | May 2003 | Brad Lemley
Posted on 04/21/2003 7:57:41 AM CDT by honway
<http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/897232/posts>http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/897232/posts

"......60 percent of America's petroleum supplies come from foreign
countries (24 percent is imported from Persian Gulf countries, including 6
percent from Iraq) - increasing to 64 percent by 2020. Our national
security, let alone our economy, must not be captive to volatile and
unreliable sources of energy. Keep in mind that in 1973, when only 36
percent of our supply was imported, OPEC was able to create an energy
crisis here by cutting supply and driving up prices.

Nearly 70 percent of oil reserves and 50 percent of gas reserves are
located on government lands. By 2020, U.S. oil and gas consumption will
increase by more than 30 percent and 60 percent, respectively. A labyrinth
of statutes, regulations and lawsuits have made access to these resources -
whether in the Alaska National Wildlife Reserve, the continental United
States, or off the coasts of California and Florida - extremely difficult
and costly.

Furthermore, a major refinery hasn't been built in more than 20 years, the
Environmental Protection Agency mandates a large variety of petroleum
blends for different parts of the country, and more pipeline delivery
systems are needed. The construction of power plants isn't keeping pace
with electricity demand, which will increase by 45 percent in 2020. And
there hasn't been a nuclear power plant licensed since 1979." ~ Rush
Limbaugh Thursday, January 10, 2002
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/folder/daschle.member.html
Received on Thu Aug 25 22:30:19 2005

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