Re: Matthew Simmons on Oil

From: Jim Armstrong <jarmstro@qwest.net>
Date: Tue Aug 23 2005 - 14:36:47 EDT

Well, it ought to be fun hearing the responses to this one, given the
enormous amount of traffic on the subject on this server in the past
(which Janice is evidently unaware of, or disbelieves). But Janice, the
bottom line - often unrecognized - is that the remaining half-full glass
of oil does not empty easily or anywhere near completely into the mouth
to slake ones thirst. JimA

janice matchett wrote:

> At 02:14 PM 8/21/2005, Glenn Morton wrote:
>
>> I read his 400 book on the airplane on the way back to Beijing about
>> a week ago. I am more depressed than ever. I learned a few things
>> about the fields that the Saudis claim are going to replace the oil
>> Ghawar doesn't produce. They are fields which have already produced
>> and were abandoned. Also the southern part of Ghawar has a 13
>> millidarcy reservoir. Usually we call such reservoir a dry hole.
>>
>> I am currently reading The Long Emergency. It is really depressing
>> so I am going to stop reading it.
>>
>> Al Koop <koopa@gvsu.edu> wrote:
>>
>> http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/Simmons.html
>>
>
> ### Half the stock market (reflecting the world) is made up of
> negative, fear/pessimism-driven Bears and the other half is made up
> of positive, courage/optimism-driven Bulls.
>
> Into which perspective / worldview do you think you would fall?
>
> Fear sells (to the glass is half-empty, doom and gloom Bears). And
> there are no better Chicken-Little fear-mongerers than the "Perfect
> Storm" stock market Bears at financialsense.com
>
> Reality:
>
> We haven't even begun to tap into some of the huge deep oil well
> reserves. We have more oil reserves today than ever before. Oil
> Reserve History
> <http://www.radford.edu/%7Ewkovarik/oil/5oilreservehistory.html>
> http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/5oilreservehistory.html
>
> <http://www.radford.edu/%7Ewkovarik/oil/5oilreservehistory.html>FACT:
> Oil bubbles up freely through fissures in the bottom of the ocean
> Google Results 1 - 10 of about 9,150 for oil
> <http://www.google.com//url?sa=X&oi=dict&q=http://www.answers.com/oil%26r%3D67>
> bubbles
> <http://www.google.com//url?sa=X&oi=dict&q=http://www.answers.com/bubbles%26r%3D67>
> up
> <http://www.google.com//url?sa=X&oi=dict&q=http://www.answers.com/up%26r%3D67>
> from
> <http://www.google.com//url?sa=X&oi=dict&q=http://www.answers.com/from%26r%3D67>
> fissures
> <http://www.google.com//url?sa=X&oi=dict&q=http://www.answers.com/fissures%26r%3D67>
> in the ocean
> <http://www.google.com//url?sa=X&oi=dict&q=http://www.answers.com/ocean%26r%3D67>.
> (0.27 seconds
> http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&c2coff=1&q=oil+bubbles+up+from+fissures+in+the+ocean&spell=1
>
> <http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&c2coff=1&q=oil+bubbles+up+from+fissures+in+the+ocean&spell=1>August
> 23, 2005 An Oil "Crisis"? By Thomas Sowell
> <http://www.creators.com/opinion_writetheauthor.cfm?pg=write&columnsname=tso>
> <http://www.creators.com/opinion_writetheauthor.cfm?pg=write&columnsname=tso>
> http://realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/com-8_23_05_TS.html
>
> 8-23-05 Oil prices and the Rule of Bigness
> <http://www.dailybreeze.com/opinion/articles/1791282.html> James K.
> <http://www.naplesnews.com/npdn/pe_columnists/article/0,2071,NPDN_14960_4021955,00.html>Glassman:
> <http://www.naplesnews.com/npdn/pe_columnists/article/0,2071,NPDN_14960_4021955,00.html>
> Daily Breeze http://www.dailybreeze.com/opinion/articles/1791282.html
>
>
> 8-23-05 On the Move in the Oil, Gas, and Petrochemical Market,
> Washington Group International Establishes Its Oil & Gas Headquarters
> in Houston The Company Launches Hiring of Hundreds of Oil and Gas
> Professionals
> http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=70435&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=743745&highlight
> <http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=70435&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=743745&highlight>=
>
> The Bottomless Well: No Need To Curb Energy Consumption
> by James K. Glassman <http://capmag.com/author.asp?name=17>(May 19,
> 2005) http://capmag.com/article.asp?ID=4235
>
>
> Ignorance on Energy Matters Is Profound
> By James K. Glassman
> <http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.22321//scholars/filter.all,scholarID.21/scholar.asp>
> Posted: Monday, April 18, 2005
> http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.22321/pub_detail.asp
>
> 4/28/05 The Economist: "A Bottomless Beer Mug: Why the World is not
> Running Out of Oil." Excerpt:
>
> "Peter O'Dell of Rotterdam's Erasmus University points out that since
> 1971, over 1500 billion barrels of oil have been added to our
> worldwide reserves. Over the same 35-year period, under 800 billion
> barrels were consumed. One can argue for a world which has been
> running into oil rather than running out of it. What makes the
> estimates go up continuously is a combination of economics and
> innovation. The IEA explains the process this way. Reserves are
> constantly revised in line with new discoveries, changes in prices,
> and technological advances. These revisions invariably add to the
> reserve base. A few decades ago the average oil recovery rate from
> reservoirs was 20%. Thanks to remarkable advances in technology this
> has risen to about 35% today."
>
> The New Age of Discovery.
>
> "But there is a more practical fallacy embedded in the gloomy
> forecast, too. 'I challenge the idea that the era of discovery is over
> in oil,' says one expert. Thanks to the Cold War and other political
> constraints on western investment, much of the world has yet to be
> explored with the aid of the latest technologies. Most of the oil
> still undiscovered thanks to the Cold War and other political
> constraints on western investment, called environmentalism. New word
> for political constraints on western investment, environmentalism.
> Already, the industry, (the oil industry), is exploring underwater at
> depths that were unimaginable a decade or two ago. In the Gulf of
> Mexico and elsewhere, oil rigs now float atop 3,000 meters, or 10,000
> feet of water. These marvels of engineering [capitalism] are stuffed
> with the latest in robotics, electronic sensors, and satellite
> equipment using fancy multilateral wells that twist and turn in all
> directions, they can hit giant underwater oil pockets miles away from
> the rigs." ...."
>
> Lots more here:
> There's No Oil Shortage
> <http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1396154/posts> May 3, 2005
> http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1396154/posts
>
>
> Oil, Oil Everywhere
> The Wall Street Journal Opinion Journal ^ | Sunday, January 30, 2005
> 12:01 a.m. EST | PETER HUBER AND MARK MILLS Posted on 01/30/2005
> 10:24:37 AM CST by Woodworker
> http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1331914/posts
>
> Also, another idea:
>
> Anything into Oil (solution to dependence on foregn oil?)
> DISCOVER Vol. 24 No. 5 ^ | May 2003 | Brad Lemley
> Posted on 04/21/2003 7:57:41 AM CDT by honway
> http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/897232/posts
>
> "......60 percent of America's petroleum supplies come from foreign
> countries (24 percent is imported from Persian Gulf countries,
> including 6 percent from Iraq) - increasing to 64 percent by 2020. Our
> national security, let alone our economy, must not be captive to
> volatile and unreliable sources of energy. Keep in mind that in 1973,
> when only 36 percent of our supply was imported, OPEC was able to
> create an energy crisis here by cutting supply and driving up prices.
>
> Nearly 70 percent of oil reserves and 50 percent of gas reserves are
> located on government lands. By 2020, U.S. oil and gas consumption
> will increase by more than 30 percent and 60 percent, respectively. A
> labyrinth of statutes, regulations and lawsuits have made access to
> these resources - whether in the Alaska National Wildlife Reserve, the
> continental United States, or off the coasts of California and Florida
> - extremely difficult and costly.
>
> Furthermore, a major refinery hasn't been built in more than 20 years,
> the Environmental Protection Agency mandates a large variety of
> petroleum blends for different parts of the country, and more pipeline
> delivery systems are needed. The construction of power plants isn't
> keeping pace with electricity demand, which will increase by 45
> percent in 2020. And there hasn't been a nuclear power plant licensed
> since 1979." ~ Rush Limbaugh Thursday, January 10, 2002
> http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/folder/daschle.member.html
>
>
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Received on Tue Aug 23 14:38:18 2005

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