Re: Matthew Simmons on Oil

From: Glenn Morton <>
Date: Sun Aug 21 2005 - 14:14:07 EDT

I read his 400 book on the airplane on the way back to Beijing about a week ago. I am more depressed than ever. I learned a few things about the fields that the Saudis claim are going to replace the oil Ghawar doesn't produce. They are fields which have already produced and were abandoned. Also the southern part of Ghawar has a 13 millidarcy reservoir. Usually we call such reservoir a dry hole.
I am currently reading The Long Emergency. It is really depressing so I am going to stop reading it.

Al Koop <> wrote:

The above is the link to the transcript of an hour long interview with Matthew Simmons, author of Twilight in the Desert. If you want to get the main gist of the book without reading it you can read this transcript of the interview.

You will note chasm between oil expert analysis here. Simmons thinks it is conceivable that in 5 years Saudi Arabia will only be able to produce half of the oil they are producing now, while other analysts like Daniel Yergin believe that in 15 years Saudi Arabia will be producing 4 to 5 times what they are today. It just goes to show how little is known about how much oil we have as ultimate reserves. I think that Simmons has the evidence on his side and without some unforeseen oil discoveries his analysis is nearer to reality than the predictions based on the hope and no evidence of the optimists like Yergin.

There are interesting comments about Senate hearings in the 1970's as well as Simmons take on what the world can do to conserve its oil.

He refers to the cost of crude by the pint to indicate how cheap it is. We just hit a high of 20 cents a pint!

Al Koop

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Received on Mon Aug 22 15:05:58 2005

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