Re: More doom and gloom

From: John W Burgeson <>
Date: Thu Aug 12 2004 - 16:58:01 EDT

>>"But there is a mystery in the figures. Global oil demand is
approximately 81 mb/d. With non-Opec crude production at 49.92mb/d and
Opec's at 29.26 mb/d, plus 3.51 m b/d extra for gas and other liquids,
total production is 82.8. This suggests that stocks should be building by
1.8 mb/d globally, which would noramlly be enough to see prices fall.>>

I'd be more inclined to just see the situation as one of poorly measured
data. 1.8 out of 81 is only about a 2% error. Market research of any type
is inherently akin to weather forecasting -- when I did it at IBM 12
years ago (!) a 20% error (of, say, installed LANS) was considered very


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Received on Thu Aug 12 17:32:21 2004

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