Re: Oil: $182/barrel

From: Al Koop <koopa@gvsu.edu>
Date: Thu May 06 2004 - 10:50:35 EDT

>>> "Glenn Morton" wrote:
This week is the major and largest oil field conference in the
industry--the Offshore Technology Conference. During this week I had
the pleasure of meeting (and actually getting to know a bit (he
remembers me, called me by name today)) Matt Simmons, an investment
banker for the energy industry. He has been instrumental in bringing
the knowledge of the coming energy crisis to public awareness. I was
fortunate enough to be able to attend the lunch today where he gave a
speech, and Lord willing will attend a full morning tomorrow of experts
some arguing that there is a problem others arguing that there isn't.

Glenn,
Thanks for your onsite report of the conference. For those interested
in reading some of Simmons reports, they can be found at this company's
web site:

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches

What do those experts mean when they argue that there isn't a problem?
Does this mean that they think supply will not exceed demand for
petroleum in the next five years? In the next ten years? In the next
30 years? Or never. Do they think that new energy sources will be
found to replace oil, whenever that is needed, at a reasonable cost with
only a small blip in the world economy? Can you help me (us) understand
in what sense they see no problems?

I have been trying to find (with referenced evidence) a good rebuttal to
those who claim we are heading for severe energy problems, and I cannot
find any. Those who profess to not be concerned about petroleum
supplies leave us with nothing more than vague statements that they
think new technologies will produce more oil as needed or that increased
prices will lead to quick solutions. All of those who see no problem
seem to have about as good an energy plan as somebody intending to fund
their retirement by winning the lottery--not completely impossible that
it will work, but highly unlikely.

Enjoy the graduation festivities.

Al Koop
Received on Thu May 6 10:51:41 2004

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