Re: Saudi oil field declines.

From: wallyshoes <wallyshoes@mindspring.com>
Date: Thu Apr 29 2004 - 00:13:23 EDT

Is it always all "gloom and doom" with you, Glenn?

I personally cannot see any salvation except for a return to the life spans
of over 150 years ago. Fewer populace, lower technology and the return to a
simpler life.

Right now, we live longer, suffer more and life "sucks" at the end! Whoopee!

Fusion is NOT going to happen -- so we have to live with it!

Better is to go back to from whence we came (IMHO)

Walt

Glenn Morton wrote:

> This week's Oil and Gas Journal has an article on a world oil production
> capacity model (Wocap). The author of the article is Samsam Bakhtiari,
> who is with the Iranian National Oil co. in Tehran. The model predicts
> that world oil production will peak around 2006-2007 at 81 million
> barrels per day give or take a million b/d or so. They say a couple of
> things that scare me.
>
> "Under no scenario (even the most exotic ones) could the Wocap
> model be simulated to peak after 2008-a date that really seems to be the
> ultimate terminus ad quem." A. M. Samsam Bakhtiari, "World Oil
> Production Capacity Model Suggests Output Peak by 2006-2007," Oil and
> Gas Journal, April 26, 2004, p. 18
>
> While lots of models have indicated different dates for peak oil, most
> are concentrated in this decade. There is even an outside possibility
> that the world could peak this year.
>
> But the most scarey thing was the last paragraph below. The decline
> rates of the Saudi fields. The background of this passage is that Matt
> Simmons, a major oil industry investment banker, gave a paper in
> February about the sorry state of Saudi fields. More and more experts
> are coming to the conclusion that Simmons is correct. Bakhtiari is one
> of them:
>
> "As for Saudi Aramco's defense of its future oil potential, it
> simply cannot be taken seriously, as it is now highly doubtful that
> their oil fields can hold their own during the present decade. Some
> Saudi Aramco officers, such as Mahmoud Abdul-Baqi, vice president,
> exploration, and Nansen Saleri, manager, reservoir management, are still
> sanguine about future potential, as the latter declared: 'Saudi Arabia
> could easily achieve and sustain a production of 10 million b/d through
> to 2054.'"
> "If Saleri is correct, then Simmon's thesis and the Wocap
> scenarios are good for history's dustbin; there is an unbridgeable gap
> between his half a century and a mere decade (at best). But,
> fortunately, some Saudi officers are much more prudent than their
> above-mentioned colleagues.
> "One of them is Saudi Aramco's senior vice-president for
> exploration, Abdullah Al-Seif, who reportedly told an interviewer in
> December 2003: 'There is a need for 800,000 b/d [of] new capacity to
> maintain [the] current level of 10 million b/d...[as]the decline in
> [Saudi] oil fields ranges between 5% and 12%." ." A. M. Samsam
> Bakhtiari, "World Oil Production Capacity Model Suggests Output Peak by
> 2006-2007," Oil and Gas Journal, April 26, 2004, p. 19-20
>
> A 12% decline rate means that in 5 years a field is producing half of
> what it produces today. A 5% decline will, in five year's time, result
> in a field producing only 77% of what it produces today.
>
> This information is consistent with what I heard personally from
> reservoir engineers who have worked the Saudi fields and which I posted
> here earlier.

--
===================================
Walt Hicks <wallyshoes@mindspring.com>
In any consistent theory, there must
exist true but not provable statements.
(Godel's Theorem)
You can only find the truth with logic
If you have already found the truth
without it. (G.K. Chesterton)
===================================
Received on Thu Apr 29 00:16:12 2004

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