RE: The Party's Over

From: Glenn Morton <>
Date: Mon Apr 12 2004 - 21:08:05 EDT

The thing that fascinates me is that if you speak to Saudi Aramco
reservoir engineers, they will tell you they don't believe the Saudi
claim that they can increase production by 50% and maintain that rate
for 50 years. They do say they think they might do it for 10-15 years,
but that is all. These are the guys working for the Saudi Oil minister
who made the claim below. To do what the Saudi are claiming, requires
that they produce more oil than they have declared as reserves. Is it
conceivable? YEs. Is it likely? Not in my opinion.
I have submitted a news and views item to PSCF which discusses what I
have found in interviews with lots of people working Ghawar, the world's
largest field.

Curiously the April 5 issue of Oil & Gas Journal has an interview with
the Saudi oil minister whose intent is to refute the "peak-oil"
naysayers. He says:

  "We have to take these statements [about running out of Saudi oil]
seriously because of the damage they can do to [sic] influencing
desision-makers. And I think it would be tragic for the world to
believe that we're running out of oil in the next 10 years. We may be
running out of oil in the next 50-80 years; that's something else."

Right or wrong, I find it amazing that he seems to think that his 50-80
year estimate is GOOD news! True, it's better than running out
tomorrow, but we're still talking about one newborn's lifetime. And
China is just starting to go automobile-mad!

Karl V. Evans
Received on Mon Apr 12 21:08:23 2004

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