From: Glenn Morton (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Date: Sat Sep 20 2003 - 21:57:12 EDT
there was an article in the Oil and Gas Journal, Aug 25, 2003 entitled,
"North Sea Oil Reserves: Half Full or Half Empty?" by AM Samsam Bakhtiari
A passage explains well what is about to happen to the world:
"Among the major oil producers outside the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries, the North Sea was one of the major pillars (besides
Russia) with roughly 14% of non-OPEC output. But while Russia has been able
to stabilize its oil production (mainly due to its "lost" production of the
early 1990s) and hopes to plateau at 7.5-8 million b/d in the years to come,
the North Sea seems to have passed its peak. "
"And there is no replacement for the North Sea's declining output. For
those hoping that the Caspian Sea will take up the slack, they will still
have to wait for the verdict on Kashagan and other Azerbaijan hopefuls. "
"The North Sea decline is yet another example supporting the global oil
depletion theory (OGJ, July 14, 2003, p. 18), coming on the heels of
Alaska's decline. But its decline will have some major consequences for all
players in the global petroleum industry. "
"Globally speaking, the gradual loss of a major province will further
place pressure on an uncertain supply picture."
"In addition, for Europe and the European Union, the diminishing output
from a highly secure and reliable regionówhich accounted for some 92% of its
domestic oil productionócannot fail to have momentous consequences."
Baktiari predicts that the UK will change from a net exporter of oil to a
net importer of oil in 2005. Somewhere around a year and a half from now.
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