RE: Is the Hubbert curve a factor in the Bush

From: Glenn Morton (
Date: Tue Feb 18 2003 - 22:27:05 EST

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    Administrations rush to war with Iraq?
    Date: Tue, 18 Feb 2003 18:39:46 -0000
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    Concerning Joel's post:

    While it is true that the Hubbert curve will most likely start to bite in
    the next few years, and it is probably true that many in the Bush admin know
    this, it does not automatically follow that that is the reason for the war.
    First, there is no profit in this at all. The Iraqi oil infrastructure is
    decrepit with many fields having been hurt by neglect. In 1979, Iraq
    produced 3.4 million barrels per day. In 2001, they only produced 2.4
    million bbl/day. The cost of the war will be between 50 and 87 billion
    (,1870,163776,00.html )--rough
    ly 1.4 to 2.4 BILLION barrels of oil. If this were about oil, go buy it on
    the open market.

    Secondly, as I understand international law, the debts will pass from one
    government to the next. Thus the Iraqi's owe the Russians 5 to 7 billion
    dollars--roughly 140 to 200 million barrels at today's price. That is about
    100 days of Iraqi production. That must be

    Given that the oil is the only way to rebuild Iraq, assuming that Saddam
    doesn't burn the fields, then the US will have to invest billions of
    additional dollars to increase Iraq's production to both pay back the
    Russians, run the Iraqi government and rebuild the country.

    I would strongly suggest that the most business savvy individuals are to be
    found in the oil business. Those like Cheney, and the others KNOW that this
    is a really bad investment.

    I suspect that the policy makers know that we will never have peace in the
    Middle East until the Israeli Palestinian conflict is resolved. Saddam pays
    10-25,000 dollars to families of homicide bombers. Iraq and Iran strongly
    support the terrorists. The only way to calm Palestine is to make an
    example of one of the guys there supporting that behavior and hope that
    Syria and Iran take note.

    In short, I don't buy your premise that the war is about oil. Thus, I do
    think it is about an up and coming, very powerful dictator who might get the
    bomb. Regardless of whether or not he is connected to Al Qaeda, do we
    really want another North Korea where we dare not move for fear of the bomb?
    If Saddam gets the bomb, he wins the entire Middle East as a vassal state
    with which he can become a world power. Do you want a pan-arabic nation
    stretching from Pakistan to the Strait of Gibraltar, having the bomb, and
    looking to topple the West?

    One other reason this isn't about oil. THere are real risks that Saddam and
    possibly Al Qaeda could do severe damage to the Saudi fields which supply
    abut 10% of the world's oil. If that happens, Bush will lose the next
    election because the cost of oil will drive the US economy into a severe
    slump, thousands out of work leading to an angry populace. If you wish to
    oppose the war, do it for logical reasons, not for the fallacious view that
    this is about oil. It isn't.

    I am not on the list any more. Don't really want to be on the list, so if
    someone has something to say which they want me to see, copy me.


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