From: Glenn Morton (email@example.com)
Date: Tue Feb 18 2003 - 22:27:05 EST
Administrations rush to war with Iraq?
Date: Tue, 18 Feb 2003 18:39:46 -0000
Concerning Joel's post:
While it is true that the Hubbert curve will most likely start to bite in
the next few years, and it is probably true that many in the Bush admin know
this, it does not automatically follow that that is the reason for the war.
First, there is no profit in this at all. The Iraqi oil infrastructure is
decrepit with many fields having been hurt by neglect. In 1979, Iraq
produced 3.4 million barrels per day. In 2001, they only produced 2.4
million bbl/day. The cost of the war will be between 50 and 87 billion
ly 1.4 to 2.4 BILLION barrels of oil. If this were about oil, go buy it on
the open market.
Secondly, as I understand international law, the debts will pass from one
government to the next. Thus the Iraqi's owe the Russians 5 to 7 billion
dollars--roughly 140 to 200 million barrels at today's price. That is about
100 days of Iraqi production. www.cdi.org/russia/235-15.cfm That must be
Given that the oil is the only way to rebuild Iraq, assuming that Saddam
doesn't burn the fields, then the US will have to invest billions of
additional dollars to increase Iraq's production to both pay back the
Russians, run the Iraqi government and rebuild the country.
I would strongly suggest that the most business savvy individuals are to be
found in the oil business. Those like Cheney, and the others KNOW that this
is a really bad investment.
I suspect that the policy makers know that we will never have peace in the
Middle East until the Israeli Palestinian conflict is resolved. Saddam pays
10-25,000 dollars to families of homicide bombers. Iraq and Iran strongly
support the terrorists. The only way to calm Palestine is to make an
example of one of the guys there supporting that behavior and hope that
Syria and Iran take note.
In short, I don't buy your premise that the war is about oil. Thus, I do
think it is about an up and coming, very powerful dictator who might get the
bomb. Regardless of whether or not he is connected to Al Qaeda, do we
really want another North Korea where we dare not move for fear of the bomb?
If Saddam gets the bomb, he wins the entire Middle East as a vassal state
with which he can become a world power. Do you want a pan-arabic nation
stretching from Pakistan to the Strait of Gibraltar, having the bomb, and
looking to topple the West?
One other reason this isn't about oil. THere are real risks that Saddam and
possibly Al Qaeda could do severe damage to the Saudi fields which supply
abut 10% of the world's oil. If that happens, Bush will lose the next
election because the cost of oil will drive the US economy into a severe
slump, thousands out of work leading to an angry populace. If you wish to
oppose the war, do it for logical reasons, not for the fallacious view that
this is about oil. It isn't.
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