From: Glenn Morton (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Date: Thu Sep 19 2002 - 00:40:04 EDT
> Since I used that phase once, you are probably thinking about me (among
others?). I would
>never call you the _only_ prophet of gloom and doom -- just _ONE_ of the
prophets of gloom
> and doom.
>If you are right, it is pretty sad.
Walter, I keep up with the literature in my field of work. I know what the
stats are saying. I read the articles and watch the production statistics.
Today I was speaking with a friend who used to work for my company and who
left to go work for Aramco--the Arabian company. I asked him about the
reserves in Saudi. He said that the reserves, even on a single field, are
with held from those who work on the field. The Saudi's do not want their
reserve numbers getting out. It isn't to their advantage. I asked him about
spare capacity. He cited the usual 2 million a day extra capacity. I asked
him how he knew and when were the wells last on line. He admitted that this
was a real issue for their spare capacity. I, unlike you and your
grandaughter, get to speak with people who actually work the area. They
never confirm the high reserves the Saudi's claim nor do they confirm the
high spare capacity.
>Can you cite an easily available reference for a Freshman in High School
that she could
>obtain for the library -- the most compelling one you know of? Who knows,
>beginning could help to put the world on the correct path :-)
Tell her to get the Colin Campbell, Jean H. LaherrËre, Scientific American
article, March 1998. While he estimated a smaller ultimate recovery for the
world than I do, he is correct that this decade will see the peaking of oil
production in the world. Better still get Kenneth S. Deffeyes, ìHubbertís
Peakî (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001)
Those who think we won't run out of oil for a long, long time, aren't
smelling the coffee.
for lots of creation/evolution information
personal stories of struggle
From: Walter Hicks [mailto:email@example.com]
Sent: Wednesday, September 18, 2002 12:07 PM
To: Glenn Morton
Subject: Re: Discovery vs production
Glenn Morton wrote:
Since some on this list think I am a sole proprietor of doom and gloom,
oil-wise, I thought that some stuff from First Break, the journal of the
European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers might be of interest.
My granddaughter is some sort of Triathlon Academic Team and has economics
of energy as one of the the topics. The literature she has been given touts
the viewpoint that you criticize -- namely that there are gobs of reserve
Walt Hicks <firstname.lastname@example.org>
In any consistent theory, there must
exist true but not provable statements.
You can only find the truth with logic
If you have already found the truth
without it. (G.K. Chesterton)
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