RE: Discovery vs production

From: Glenn Morton (glenn.morton@btinternet.com)
Date: Thu Sep 19 2002 - 00:40:04 EDT

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    Walter wrote:
    > Since I used that phase once, you are probably thinking about me (among
    others?). I would
    >never call you the _only_ prophet of gloom and doom -- just _ONE_ of the
    prophets of gloom
    > and doom.
    >
    >If you are right, it is pretty sad.

    Walter, I keep up with the literature in my field of work. I know what the
    stats are saying. I read the articles and watch the production statistics.
    Today I was speaking with a friend who used to work for my company and who
    left to go work for Aramco--the Arabian company. I asked him about the
    reserves in Saudi. He said that the reserves, even on a single field, are
    with held from those who work on the field. The Saudi's do not want their
    reserve numbers getting out. It isn't to their advantage. I asked him about
    spare capacity. He cited the usual 2 million a day extra capacity. I asked
    him how he knew and when were the wells last on line. He admitted that this
    was a real issue for their spare capacity. I, unlike you and your
    grandaughter, get to speak with people who actually work the area. They
    never confirm the high reserves the Saudi's claim nor do they confirm the
    high spare capacity.

    >Can you cite an easily available reference for a Freshman in High School
    that she could
    >obtain for the library -- the most compelling one you know of? Who knows,
    this humble
    >beginning could help to put the world on the correct path :-)

    Tell her to get the Colin Campbell, Jean H. LaherrËre, Scientific American
    article, March 1998. While he estimated a smaller ultimate recovery for the
    world than I do, he is correct that this decade will see the peaking of oil
    production in the world. Better still get Kenneth S. Deffeyes, ìHubbertís
    Peakî (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001)

    Those who think we won't run out of oil for a long, long time, aren't
    smelling the coffee.

    glenn

    see http://www.glenn.morton.btinternet.co.uk/dmd.htm
    for lots of creation/evolution information
    anthropology/geology/paleontology/theology\
    personal stories of struggle
    -----Original Message-----
    From: Walter Hicks [mailto:wallyshoes@mindspring.com]
    Sent: Wednesday, September 18, 2002 12:07 PM
    To: Glenn Morton
    Cc: asa@calvin.edu
    Subject: Re: Discovery vs production

    Glenn Morton wrote:
    Since some on this list think I am a sole proprietor of doom and gloom,
    oil-wise, I thought that some stuff from First Break, the journal of the
    European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers might be of interest.

    Now Glenn:
      My granddaughter is some sort of Triathlon Academic Team and has economics
    of energy as one of the the topics. The literature she has been given touts
    the viewpoint that you criticize -- namely that there are gobs of reserve
    oil left.

    Walt

    ===================================
    Walt Hicks <wallyshoes@mindspring.com>
    In any consistent theory, there must
    exist true but not provable statements.
    (Godel's Theorem)
    You can only find the truth with logic
    If you have already found the truth
    without it. (G.K. Chesterton)
    ===================================



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