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From: Glenn Morton (glenn.morton@btinternet.com)
Date: Wed Sep 04 2002 - 22:21:52 EDT

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    Walter wrote on Tuesday, September 03, 2002 10:53 PM
    [some stuff snipped]
    >Try reading
    >some books about the talent they used on _that_ problem. What they
    >need is the
    >same conviction that you have about the oil supply.

    I know the level of talent they used on that issue, but I surmise I was
    correct that you don't have a great deal of respect for those working the

    When they get that
    >conviction, then you will get the solution you desire.

    When most of the world gets the conviction about oil, it will be several
    years AFTER the problem has arisen. We have to go through several phases of
    political hacks drumming up votes. First there will be the assumption that
    the oil companies are hiding oil and that tankers are just waiting offshore
    for prices to rise phase. Then there will be the phase where it is assumed
    that the short supply is artificially generated so that the evil oil
    companies can go drill in wilderness places and despoil the world (just as
    they are believed to have planned for over a century). Then there will be
    the phase where the Arabs are blamed. Since they aren't sending us enough
    oil anymore, they must be doing it to harm us--which will lead to military
    threats against them. There will finally be a phase where people assume
    that, like the 70s, oil will flow once again in a few years all we have to
    do is wait (This will be the technological equivalent of the Cargo Cult of
    the South Pacific). Only after all those phases will people finally realize
    there is a real problem. And then we will be well into it.

    >I turn the question around and ask you why it is that Glenn Morton sees the
    >problem and the governments of the world do not? Are they all
    >idiots and you are
    >the smart one? Are you not being as arrogant as you claim I am?

    No, I am not being as arrogant as I claim you are. I am not the only one
    who sees the problem. I posted the link from the O&G Journal this morning. I
    could point you to lots of other sites, like

    www.dieoff.org --which is a very interesting site.

    I would cite from the journals articles written by Richard Duncan like
    Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist, ìEncircling the Peak of World Oil
    Production,î Natural Resources Research, 8(1999):3:219-232

    Richard C. Duncan, ìWorld Energy Production, Population Growth, and the Road
    to the Olduvai Gorge,î Population and Environment: A Journal of
    Interdisciplinary Studies, 22:5:503-522

    Books by Colin Campbell, or Kenneth S. Deffeyes, ìHubbertís Peakî
    (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2001)

    Or read some actual articles from the industry literature which contain
    quotes like:
              "Indonesia is in the midst of major difficulties. In steady
    retreat since
    1996, production was down again in 2000, to 1.43 million b/d (-10%). This
    decline is expected to persist in 2001, with supply standing at about 1.3
    million b/d. In the event that production continues to fall, Indonesia would
    no longer be a net exporter and would have to leave OPEC within the next
    four or five years." Armelle Saniere, Colin Baudouin, Bernard Bensaid and
    Sebastien Fraysse, "How the 2002 Business Environment for Oil and Gas
    Exploration has developed around the World," First Break, 20(2002):2:80-87,
    p. 87

    Australian reserves
    ìCurrent reserves, however, are insufficient to sustain present levels of
    production in the medium term. Estimates of future production of oil and
    condensate suggest that at the mean expectation, production rates will drop
    by around 33% by 2005 and 50% by 2010, largely as a result of a decline in
    oil production. This forecast includes production from fields that have not
    yet been discovered. Condensate production will continue to grow, but rate
    of growth is constrained by gas production rates and overall by the
    development timetable for the major gas fields.î
            ìThe rate of discovery of new oil fields is insufficient to replace the
    reserves that are being produced. If Australia is to maximize the
    opportunity to maintain production at similar levels to the recent past, it
    is probable that exploration effort will have to diversify to the frontier
    basins to locate a new oil province whilst continuing to explore the full
    potential of the known hydrocarbon-bearing basins. Australia still has a
    remarkable number of basins that have received little or no exploration.î T.
    G. Powell, ìUnderstanding Australiaís Petroleum Resources, Future Production
    Trends and The role of the Frontiers,î First Break, 19(2001):7;397-409, p.

          "For the major oil companies none of this comes as a surprise. To them,
    it has been very clear that finding new hydrocarbon accumulations, in old
    and new basins, is becoming more and more difficult and that replacing
    produced reserves with fresh ones is somehow impossible. During the years of
    oil glut the wise companies have tried to secure the maximum number of
    permits, areas of study, buy back contracts and whatever was available.
    Sometime they increased their reserves through the acquisition of other
            "The lesson about the difficulty in restoring produced
    reserves ahs clearly
    been learned, evidenced by the cannibalisation of oil companines. a recent
    example comes from Italy, where a company in order to increase its
    production from about 1 million barrels of oil equivalent a day to 1.5
    million decided to purchase other companies, paying theerby SEC reserves,
    resources, but even past dry costs."
            "Apparently, for a strong and healthy oil company, this is
    now the easiest
    way to increase its reserves. But it is a dangerous decision. In the long
    run it will have a negative impact because it will destroy crucial know-how
    which is so difficult to acquire, cultivate and increase." Franco di Cesare,
    "When 'oil in the well, gas in the stove' may no longer hold true," First
    Break 19(2001):3(March), pp 135-136, p. 135

    No, Walter, I am not alone in my belief. Many, indeed I would say most, in
    the industry know the problem. It is government that is not wanting to deal
    with it. Indeed governments never produce gloomy predictions because it is
    not in their interest to depress the peasants.


    see http://www.glenn.morton.btinternet.co.uk/dmd.htm
    for lots of creation/evolution information
    personal stories of struggle
    >Walt Hicks <wallyshoes@mindspring.com>
    >In any consistent theory, there must
    >exist true but not provable statements.
    >(Godel's Theorem)
    >You can only find the truth with logic
    >If you have already found the truth
    >without it. (G.K. Chesterton)

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