Re: Doom and gloom

From: Walter Hicks (wallyshoes@mindspring.com)
Date: Wed Sep 04 2002 - 02:52:56 EDT

  • Next message: Hassell, Ian C.: "RE: Web Page reference"

    Glenn Morton wrote:

    > As I was walking out to go to work (trying to find some oil) I thought once
    > again of Walter's e-mail and thought, I have to say just one more thing.
    > Walter wrote:
    >
    > >But ----- first, Glenn's abysmal oil predictions will have to converted
    > into "fact" .
    > >The "6 month recovery time" will start and end -- based upon
    > ------- instead of predictions of >"gloom and doom".
    >
    > It is not just my personal prediction as if I have some sort of personality
    > disorder. This is the considered opinion of many, if not most, in the oil
    > industry itself. I pointed everyone to an analysis on the Oil and Gas
    > Journal web site a few weeks ago. Perhaps, Walter, you didn't read it. You
    > should. The exact timing of when we will peak out production is uncertain.
    > But the consensus is that it will happen this decade if not just after. Here
    > is what I posted a couple of weeks ago. Note, Walter, I am quoting others so
    > this isn't just the product of a mind which has become deluded while living
    > at high latitudes:
    >
    > Today's Oil and Gas Journal web page has an editorial article written by the
    > editors of the O&G Journal which predicts the peak of global oil production
    > somewhere between 2006 and 2016. The article begins:
    >
    > "HOUSTON, Aug. 12 -- The world is drawing down its oil reserves at an
    > unprecedented rate, with supplies likely to be constrained by global
    > production capacity by 2010, "even assuming no growth in demand," said
    > analysts at Douglas-Westwood Ltd., an energy industry consulting firm based
    > in Canterbury, England. "
    > http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/EdPro_Article_Display.cfm?&Section=Articles&
    > SubSection=Display&ARTICLE_ID=152444&PUBLICATION_ID=7&VERSION_NUM=1

    One can almost always find a reference to support one point of view or another.

    The trouble with all of this is that you reference conflicting information. In
    one of your last references in was shown that world's oil reserves are
    increasing, not decreasing , and that they represented a several decades'
    supply. (Your story is that reserves don't count -- only production. ) Either
    reserves are increasing or decreasing -- it can't be both ways.

    The data you referenced calls the oil reserves "usable", while you claim that
    they are not. Who then are these idiots that publish such grossly misleading
    data and what is their motivation?

    Walt

    ===================================
    Walt Hicks <wallyshoes@mindspring.com>

    In any consistent theory, there must
    exist true but not provable statements.
    (Godel's Theorem)

    You can only find the truth with logic
    If you have already found the truth
    without it. (G.K. Chesterton)
    ===================================

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    <p>Glenn Morton wrote:
    <blockquote TYPE=CITE>As I was walking out to go to work (trying to find
    some oil) I thought once
    <br>again of Walter's e-mail and thought, I have to say just one more thing.
    <br>Walter wrote:
    <p>>But ----- first, Glenn's abysmal oil predictions will have to converted
    <br>into&nbsp; "fact" .
    <br>>The "6 month recovery time" will start&nbsp; and end -- based upon
    <br>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; ------- instead of predictions of >"gloom
    and doom".
    <p>It is not just my personal prediction as if I have some sort of personality
    <br>disorder.&nbsp; This is the considered opinion of many, if not most,
    in the oil
    <br>industry itself.&nbsp; I pointed everyone to an analysis on the Oil
    and Gas
    <br>Journal web site a few weeks ago. Perhaps, Walter, you didn't read
    it. You
    <br>should.&nbsp; The exact timing of when we will peak out production
    is uncertain.
    <br>But the consensus is that it will happen this decade if not just after.
    Here
    <br>is what I posted a couple of weeks ago. Note, Walter, I am quoting
    others so
    <br>this isn't just the product of a mind which has become deluded while
    living
    <br>at high latitudes:
    <p>Today's Oil and Gas Journal web page has an editorial article written
    by the
    <br>editors of the O&amp;G Journal which&nbsp; predicts the peak of global
    oil production
    <br>somewhere between 2006 and 2016. The article begins:
    <p>"HOUSTON, Aug. 12 -- The world is drawing down its oil reserves at an
    <br>unprecedented rate, with supplies likely to be constrained by global
    <br>production capacity by 2010, "even assuming no growth in demand," said
    <br>analysts at Douglas-Westwood Ltd., an energy industry consulting firm
    based
    <br>in Canterbury, England. "
    <br><a
    href="http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/EdPro_Article_Display.cfm?&Section=Articles&">http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/EdPro_Article_Display.cfm?&Section=Articles&>
    <br>SubSection=Display&amp;ARTICLE_ID=152444&amp;PUBLICATION_ID=7&amp;VERSION_NUM=1</blockquote>

    <p><br>One can almost always find a reference to support one point of view
    or another.
    <p>The trouble with all of this is that you reference conflicting information.
    In one of your last references in was shown that world's oil reserves are
    increasing, not decreasing , and that they represented a several decades'
    supply. (Your story is that reserves don't count -- only production. )
    Either&nbsp;&nbsp; reserves are increasing or decreasing -- it can't be
    both ways.
    <p>The data you referenced calls the oil reserves "usable", while you claim
    that they are not. Who then are these idiots that publish such grossly
    misleading data and what is their motivation?
    <p>Walt
    <br>&nbsp;
    <br>&nbsp;
    <p>===================================
    <br>Walt Hicks &lt;
    wallyshoes@mindspring.com>
    <p>In any consistent theory, there must
    <br>exist true but not provable statements.
    <br>(Godel's Theorem)
    <p>You can only find the truth with logic
    <br>If you have already found the truth
    <br>without it. (G.K. Chesterton)
    <br>===================================
    <br>&nbsp;</html>

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