RE: Doom and gloom

From: Glenn Morton (glenn.morton@btinternet.com)
Date: Wed Sep 04 2002 - 09:32:09 EDT

  • Next message: Walter Hicks: "(no subject)"

    As I was walking out to go to work (trying to find some oil) I thought once
    again of Walter's e-mail and thought, I have to say just one more thing.
    Walter wrote:

    >But ----- first, Glenn's abysmal oil predictions will have to converted
    into "fact" .
    >The "6 month recovery time" will start and end -- based upon
          ------- instead of predictions of >"gloom and doom".

    It is not just my personal prediction as if I have some sort of personality
    disorder. This is the considered opinion of many, if not most, in the oil
    industry itself. I pointed everyone to an analysis on the Oil and Gas
    Journal web site a few weeks ago. Perhaps, Walter, you didn't read it. You
    should. The exact timing of when we will peak out production is uncertain.
    But the consensus is that it will happen this decade if not just after. Here
    is what I posted a couple of weeks ago. Note, Walter, I am quoting others so
    this isn't just the product of a mind which has become deluded while living
    at high latitudes:

    Today's Oil and Gas Journal web page has an editorial article written by the
    editors of the O&G Journal which predicts the peak of global oil production
    somewhere between 2006 and 2016. The article begins:

    "HOUSTON, Aug. 12 -- The world is drawing down its oil reserves at an
    unprecedented rate, with supplies likely to be constrained by global
    production capacity by 2010, "even assuming no growth in demand," said
    analysts at Douglas-Westwood Ltd., an energy industry consulting firm based
    in Canterbury, England. "
    http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/EdPro_Article_Display.cfm?&Section=Articles&
    SubSection=Display&ARTICLE_ID=152444&PUBLICATION_ID=7&VERSION_NUM=1

    It goes on:
    "A 1% annual growth in world demand for oil could cause global crude
    production to peak at 83 million b/d in 2016, said Douglas-Westwood
    analysts. A 2% growth in demand could trigger a production peak of 87
    million b/d by 2011, while 3% growth would move that production peak to as
    early as 2006, they said. "
    http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/EdPro_Article_Display.cfm?&Section=Articles&
    SubSection=Display&ARTICLE_ID=152444&PUBLICATION_ID=7&VERSION_NUM=1

    Given historic growth in oil demand of 1.5% or so, we can probably expect
    the peak to be around 2012, merely 10 years.

    In another article inside the Journal another bleak outlook is provided of
    the growing deficit between what we are finding and what we are pumping out
    of the ground. The article says:

    "The Infield Systems database shows that, over the past 5 years, some 812
    offshore oil and gas fields have been bought on stream worldwide with
    estimated reserves totalling 51.5 billion boe. " Roger Knight and John
    Westwood,
    "Special Report: Looking at Offshore Europe prospects in a global context",
    Oil and Gas Journal, Aug 19, 2002,
    http://ogj.pennnet.com/Articles/Article_Display.cfm?Section=Articles&ARTICLE
    _ID=152257&x=y

    BOE is barrels of oil equivalent. Only 53% of the above is oil. Thus we
    found only 27 billion barrels of oil over the past 5 years! Twenty-seven
    billion barrels sounds really good for discovery. In that same five year
    period the world pumped 133 billion barrels out of the ground. We are in a
    losing situation. One field found in Kazakhstan in the late 1990s was
    claimed to be a 50 billion barrel field. The article points out that it is
    now considered to be only an 8-10 billion barrel field. Even an Enron
    accountant should know that replacing only 1 in every 5 barrels pumped out
    of the ground means that oil is running out.

    Of the area I work, the North Sea, the article notes:
    "In short, the message is that while offshore activity is set to
    increase in much of the rest of the world, the North Sea is now facing
    decline. One result is that the major operators have already voted with
    their feet and are investing an increasing proportion of their development
    dollars outside Europe in new, usually deepwater, areas of the world. "
    Roger Knight and John Westwood,
    "Special Report: Looking at Offshore Europe prospects in a global context",
    Oil and Gas Journal, Aug 19, 2002,
    http://ogj.pennnet.com/Articles/Article_Display.cfm?Section=Articles&ARTICLE
    _ID=152257&x=y

    The average prospect size today is only 31 million barrels of oil
    equivalent. This is hardly enough to pay for development. The future of the
    global economy depends upon energy and the future of energy seems bleak.
    Massive investments are required to overcome the coming problem. But the
    problem is, no one in political power is awake to the problem.

    glenn

    see http://www.glenn.morton.btinternet.co.uk/dmd.htm
    for lots of creation/evolution information
    anthropology/geology/paleontology/theology\
    personal stories of struggle
    -----Original Message-----
    From: Walter Hicks [mailto:wallyshoes@mindspring.com]
    Sent: Tuesday, September 03, 2002 3:20 PM
    To: John Burgeson
    Cc: glenn.morton@btinternet.com; asa@calvin.edu
    Subject: Re:

    John Burgeson wrote:
    Glenn -- you have a lot of data on how the oil supply is running out.
    Do you (or anyone) have any ideas on when Nuclear Fusion will replace it?

    Hey Burgy (& Glenn),
    When the USA decides to apply the talents, then it will be a minimal period
    of time --- like 6 months.
    (Piece of cake !!! - even I have notions as how to proceed)
    Instead of "brute force", the talents of Physicists and Feedback Engineers
    will solve the problem in very quick order --- with minimal funding. ( I
    say 6 months)

    Walt

    Below is part of an article in NewScientist I came upon today. It was
    published a month ago. What I have been unable to find in a fairly extensive
    internet search is anyone making any predictions on when this technology
    will go on line and begin producing energy which can be substituted for coal
    and oil.
    It only took a few years for nuclear fission to go from the German lab to
    the American bomb -- less than six if my memory serves me correctly. Nuclear
    fission appears to be tougher. Yet it is apparent that the govts and
    industry are spending increasing amounts on the research necessary for its
    development.
    --------------------
    Fusion reactor breaks duration record
    10:50 06 August 02 NewScientist.com news service
    A powerful plasma discharge has operated for a world record 210 seconds in
    an experimental French fusion reactor. The demonstration is a significant
    step toward the long plasma confinement times needed in a practical fusion
    reactor.
    Physicists sustained the three-megawatt electric discharge in the Tore Supra
    reactor at the Association Euratom-CEA in Cadarache. During that interval,
    it dissipated more than 600 megajoules of energy, more than twice the
    previous record, also set by Tore Supra in 1996.
    ----------------
    Burgy
    www.burgy.50megs.com
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    --
    ===================================
    Walt Hicks <wallyshoes@mindspring.com>
    In any consistent theory, there must
    exist true but not provable statements.
    (Godel's Theorem)
    You can only find the truth with logic
    If you have already found the truth
    without it. (G.K. Chesterton)
    ===================================
    


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